Recently, SAI stablecoin has experienced active short-term trading due to renewed market interest in its theme, but caution is needed regarding the sustainability of trading volume. At the same time, increasing geopolitical volatility has caused market sentiment to swing, highlighting the safe-haven role of stablecoins, but liquidity shocks must be guarded against. In the short and medium term, it is recommended to focus on trading volumes and net inflow metrics, participating during periods of activity and setting staged take-profit and stop-loss points. From a long-term perspective, SAI’s value as a hedging tool depends on its compliance and transparency. As regulatory frameworks and adoption improve, SAI is expected to become a key market liquidity tool.

Recently, A-share sectors related to stablecoins have performed prominently, with several concept stocks hitting upper limits consecutively, reflecting the market’s ongoing focus on the stablecoin sector. For SAI:

- Elevated attention from thematic funds helps attract more trading activity in the short term.
- Improved liquidity can reduce bid-ask spreads, optimizing the environment for market-making and arbitrage strategies.
- Attention should be paid to the sustainability of increased trading volume; if it doesn’t persist, a correction risk may arise.


1. Overall trend: The A-share market opened lower and rebounded throughout the day, with the three major indices rising slightly. Most individual stocks gained, with over 3,400 stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing turning red; today's trading volume reached 1.24 trillion. By the close, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.66%.  
2. Industry sectors: Stablecoins, oil and gas, IP economy, and 3D printing sectors led the gains, while precious metals, military industry, medical and healthcare, and civil aviation airports sectors saw declines.  
3. Popular concepts: Stablecoin concept stocks surged again, with more than ten stocks including Hang Seng Electronics, Sifang Jingchuang, Hengbao Shares, and Hailian Jinhui hitting the daily limit. Oil and gas stocks surged then pulled back; stocks like Shandong Molong, Zhunyou Shares, Beiken Energy, and Taishan Petroleum hit the limit-up. The IP economy concept continued its strong momentum, driving branches like 3D printing to perform well, with Yuanlong Yatu, Disu Fashion, Golden Orange, and Haizheng Shengcai hitting the daily limit.

The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded with a decrease in volume, rising by 0.35%, while stablecoin concept stocks surged again.

On June 23, data from Tonghuashun revealed that stablecoin-related stocks were active in the A-share market. The top six stocks on Tonghuashun's hot list in the past hour were all related to stablecoins, including Hengbao Co., Sifang Jingchuang, Annie Co., Chutianlong, Dongxin He Ping, and Lakala, with daily gains of 9.39%, 14.28%, 9.97%, 9.04%, 2.49%, and 11.59%, respectively.

Data: The top 6 stocks in the recent 1-hour hot list on Tonghuashun are all related to stablecoin concepts.

Risk incidents in the Middle East triggered a widespread downturn in the crypto market, with significant declines seen in AI and DeFi sectors. Subsequently, signs of risk containment led to a narrowing of losses, and market sentiment saw a staged recovery. The impact on SAI is reflected in:

- **Short-term Sentiment**: Risk events often result in increased demand for safe-haven assets, making the role of stablecoins more prominent, but volatility can also drive capital outflows.
- **Liquidity Shocks**: During market pullbacks, large redemptions can exacerbate intrasecond fund flows, testing the depth support of exchanges and market makers.
- **Opportunities for Bargain Positioning**: During sentiment recovery, arbitrage windows between stablecoins, fiat, and other crypto assets may reopen.


The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a slight pullback, with the declines narrowing due to controlled risks in the Middle East. The AI and DeFi sectors showed resilience, rising by 1.15% and 0.37%, respectively. Notable gains in the AI sector included Bittensor (TAO), Worldcoin (WLD), and KAITO, while Uniswap (UNI), Jupiter (JUP), and Ondo Finance (ONDO) led the DeFi sector. Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.20% to $104,000, and Ethereum (ETH) decreased by 0.34%, remaining above $2,500. Other sectors, including Meme and CeFi, also saw declines.

The crypto sector experienced a slight pullback, with only the AI and DeFi sectors rising.

The cryptocurrency market experienced a widespread decline due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over U.S. involvement, with losses ranging from 2% to 5%. The AI sector led the drop, falling 5.32%, while Bitcoin dropped 2.26%, falling below $105,000. Ethereum also saw a decline of 2.49%. Other sectors, including CeFi, Layer1, and DeFi, reported losses, with notable declines in various tokens. The ssiAI, ssiRWA, and ssiNFT indices also reflected significant downturns.

Data: The entire crypto sector declined across the board, with the AI sector leading the fall at 5.32%, and BTC dropping below $105,000.

Taking into account the impact of thematic popularity and risk volatility on SAI, analysis can proceed from two dimensions:

1. **Medium-Short Term Strategy**  
   - Focus on trading volume and net inflow metrics; enter positions during periods of strong thematic activity and avoid times of heightened geopolitical risk.  
   - Set staged take-profit and stop-loss points, leveraging price differentials and market sentiment volatility for arbitrage and hedging.

2. **Long-Term Value Positioning**  
   - As a stablecoin, SAI’s core value lies in hedging fiat and market volatility. Attention should be paid to the project’s compliance and reserve transparency.  
   - Stablecoin demand is closely tied to the compliance environment. With improved regulation and application scenarios, SAI is likely to become a key liquidity instrument in the future.


It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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