XCAD is currently in a weak downward channel, with the price continuously breaking the key support at 0.0033 and trading volume shrinking, indicating insufficient market buying momentum. In the short term, the probability of continued volatile decline is high. Combined with industry regulation and declining risk appetite, market confidence is expected to remain under pressure. Short-term advice is to remain cautious and avoid blind position increases. From a medium- to long-term perspective, if XCAD can effectively penetrate prediction market infrastructure applications and improve actual circulation and scenario value, it may provide new momentum for a price reversal. In terms of operation, it is recommended to continue to watch for stabilization signals around the 0.0030 level and fundamental progress, seize structural rebound opportunities, and wait for the industry inflection point to be confirmed before deploying further.

From late December 2025 to now, XCAD's price has continued to decline from 0.0061, with several consecutive bearish candles breaking below the key support level of 0.0033, accompanied by a significant contraction in trading volume, highlighting weak market buying interest. On the daily chart, the MACD bars are narrowing and the RSI has fallen to the lower edge of the oversold area, indicating that short-term supply pressure exceeds demand. Without a clear influx of buyers, the weak trend may persist.

Industry executives mentioned in public communications that as an emerging sector, the prediction market still faces considerable uncertainty in the short term, confronting challenges from national regulations and competition among participants, leading to cautious market sentiment. Investors are reducing their exposure to high-risk subsectors, further exacerbating token selling pressure, and short-term fluctuations are likely to continue consolidating or declining.

CZ stated in a Chinese AMA on January 14 that the prediction market is a large long-term opportunity, but the short-term outlook remains unclear. The sector is in its early stages; for example, Polymarket currently has only one or two capable market makers, mainly in sports events. The future faces significant uncertainties from regulatory challenges across countries and competition within the market.

CZ's assessment of the prediction market development: The sector is in its early stages, with significant uncertainties remaining in regulatory and competitive trends.

From a medium- to long-term perspective, the prediction market is evolving from simple speculation to serving as core infrastructure for options, insurance, governance, and other areas, with its functional value continuously expanding. If XCAD can integrate into and serve these application scenarios, it is expected to generate new usage demand, increase token liquidity and underlying value, and lay a solid foundation for a potential trend reversal.

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