CUT's short-term trend has benefited from a recovery in market sentiment, but upside momentum remains limited under the constraints of the Federal Reserve's high interest rate environment. The key judgment now lies in whether trading volume and open interest can continue to expand. Only with a decisive breakout and sustained hold above the main resistance level (we recommend watching recent two-week highs) can a new bullish trend be expected. Otherwise, a break below major support may trigger pullback risks. Investors are advised to closely monitor macro policy changes, adopt range-trading strategies, strictly set take-profit and stop-loss levels, and patiently wait for confirmation from volume-price resonance and a stabilization in sentiment before confirming a trend.

Recently, signs of improvement have started to appear in the crypto market, with some trend reversal signals brewing. As a risk asset, CUT is likely to see a short-term boost in buying interest with the overall recovery in market sentiment. However, bullish momentum has yet to be fully unleashed, and it remains necessary to observe whether trading volume and open interest can keep rising to confirm sustained upward momentum.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Fed Watch data shows an over 80% probability that rates will remain unchanged in January, while expectations for rate cuts in the coming months are gradually rising, though still cautious. In a high interest rate environment, risk assets remain under pressure; should rate cut expectations materialize, it could lend support in the mid to long term. In the short term, CUT's volatility will closely follow marginal changes in the Fed's policy path, and investors should pay close attention to the immediate impact of rate decisions on risk appetite.

On January 4, CME's "Fed Watch" data indicated a 16.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in January, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate stands at 83.4%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 16.6%.

Looking at the current candlestick chart for CUT, price movements remain rangebound, with moving averages intertwined and no clear breakout trend signal yet. For a new bullish trend to commence soon, it is essential first to reclaim key resistance levels along with rising trading volumes; if current support is lost, beware of concentrated selling pressure. Traders are strongly advised to set reasonable stop-loss and take-profit levels, and only add to positions after confirmation from both technical indicators and market sentiment to mitigate short-term volatility risks.

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