ICP's recent trend has been significantly influenced by macro risk sentiment and Bitcoin's lead. In the short term, special attention should be paid to whether the support in the $2.48–2.50 area and the resistance at $2.65–2.70 can be broken. If the geopolitical situation improves and risk appetite recovers, combined with fund spillover from major coins, ICP may rally and open up space for a higher trading range. Conversely, if it falls below the support, beware of the risk of accelerated decline in the short term. In the medium to long term, thanks to increasing institutional allocation willingness and ongoing development of its ecosystem, ICP's fundamentals still offer allocation value. It is recommended to seize trading opportunities in phases and focus on ecosystem progress and mainstream fund flows in the mid-to-long run.

Although the US March CPI data attracted much attention, the market is currently more focused on the progress of US-Iran peace talks and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. If inflation is driven by geopolitical conflicts, it can be regarded as a temporary factor, and the Fed remains neutral. Substantive progress in peace talks would quickly restore risk appetite; conversely, heightened geopolitical tensions could weigh down the entire crypto asset sector, causing greater short-term volatility for ICP.

Forex analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta stated that the market is likely to ignore the March CPI data due to the focus on US-Iran negotiations, with inflation rise attributed to the war. While overall CPI forecasts vary widely, core CPI predictions are more consistent. The Federal Reserve maintains a neutral stance but remains open to tightening if inflation expectations rise or the war prolongs, with markets expecting no rate changes in 2026.

Analyst: CPI Data May Be "Ignored," US-Iran Negotiations Become the Only Variable

Bitcoin's nearly 7% rise since last Sunday has stalled near $72,000 amid cautious market sentiment. Investors await key events: the US inflation report on Friday and US-Iran ceasefire talks this weekend. Options markets show strong demand for both bullish and protective bearish positions. A higher-than-expected US March CPI could reinforce Fed rate hike expectations, pressuring risk assets, while a successful US-Iran negotiation could boost Bitcoin's rally.

Analysis: The crypto market is currently cautious, with CPI and US-Iran ceasefire talks potentially becoming key catalysts.

Bitcoin has recently broken through multi-week highs, climbing above $75,000, and the market style has reverted to risk-on. As investors await inflation data and the outcome of geopolitical talks, both hedging strategies and long positions coexist, driving Bitcoin and Ethereum higher. Against this backdrop, mainstream altcoins like ICP have benefited from fund spillover, delivering phase-wise excess returns. However, if Bitcoin falls below key support levels, ICP may also face short-term downward pressure.

Bitcoin recently surpassed $75,000 for the first time in 73 days, facing resistance near $78,000 with $74,000 seen as a critical support level for further gains. Market views diverge: bears cite weak macro liquidity and reliance on short-covering, while bulls highlight strong whale accumulation and potential breakthroughs above key moving averages. The broader market shows mixed signals amid geopolitical developments and fluctuating investor sentiment.

Trading moment: BTC encountered resistance at 78K, and it needs to hold 74K to aim for a breakthrough.

On the daily chart, ICP hit a high of $2.637 on April 8 before pulling back, then found support around $2.431 and rebounded to $2.655, but closed at $2.494 on the 18th, oscillating near the 20-day moving average. Trading volume shows a decreasing convergence trend, indicating intensified disagreement between bulls and bears. In the short term, focus should be on the effectiveness of support in the $2.48–2.50 range and resistance at $2.65–2.70. A solid breakout above resistance could trigger a new rally; otherwise, there remains a risk of retesting lower support levels.

Bitcoin has surpassed a four-week high, rising above $74,000. Analysts identify $75,000 as a critical "volatility release point," where derivative market negative gamma effects may amplify price fluctuations. This level coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, a key resistance in January. Breaking $75,000 could accelerate an uptrend, while a pullback may increase downward pressure. The $80,000–$80,600 range is a positive gamma zone with lower volatility, and the 200-day moving average at $87,519 serves as a long-term reference.

Analysis: Bitcoin breaks four-week high, key price range may intensify market volatility

With the overall recovery of risk assets and institutional reassessment of crypto allocations, market attention to value tokens has continued to increase. Although current hotspots are focused on Bitcoin ETFs and macro themes, ICP boasts strong fundamentals in network performance, ecosystem development, and application scenarios. If risk appetite holds, ICP is expected to receive incremental capital support in the medium to long term, driven by its own project value and ecosystem implementation.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

Internet Computer

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Bitcoin and Ethereum slide after Iran says Strait of Hormuz is shut

UBS Analysts Have Stated That They Expect the Fed to Cut Interest Rates Twice More This Year

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Trump: US-Iran talks progress as Iran suspends nuclear program

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Internet Computer Price: ICP Live Price Today | ICP Market Cap & Chart Analysis | Bybit-eu

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ICP price today is 2.48, with a live price change of -4.78 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade ICP on Bybit-eu.

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