MANYU has short-term speculative opportunities driven by market sentiment recovery and active speculative funds. However, its order book-based prediction market structure leads to highly segmented liquidity, where inactive contracts can easily become liquidity traps. In the medium-to-long term, market-making efficiency and intensifying industry competition impose systemic profitability pressures. It is advised to focus on core mainstream contracts, manage positions prudently, and consider short-term setups near major support levels (within ±5% of the 30-day average price). Avoid heavy chasing and beware of adverse volatility and liquidity risks.

Recently, market sentiment has begun to warm up, alleviating the overall downward pressure faced by crypto assets. Market data analysts note that as certain trend signals have tentatively improved, investors’ attention to short-term opportunities has increased. At the same time, some well-known institutions anticipate that the broader market will continue its bullish pattern, and this optimistic atmosphere helps support short-term buying interest in MANYU. However, caution is warranted, as the influx of speculative funds often leads to amplified volatility in trading volumes, and without sustained capital inflows, short-term price gains may quickly reverse.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

The prediction market sector where MANYU operates still relies on an order book-based market-making model, placing high demands on the proactive management capabilities of market makers. During periods of frequent event-driven volatility or one-sided price swings, market makers face inventory risks and slippage losses. Although leading platforms offer liquidity incentives, low capital efficiency and intense market share competition make long-term profitability difficult for small and new platforms. This structure suggests that MANYU will continue to face systemic model limitations in its medium- to long-term development.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

Historical data shows that over 60% of short-term prediction contracts have no transactions within 24 hours, with liquidity highly concentrated in a few core contracts. If MANYU’s participation in the short-term contract market is limited, it can easily fall into a low-trading zone, where large orders may trigger sharp price shocks. Moreover, while long-term contracts offer higher capital pool support, they impose greater demands on position costs and capital turnover. Investors should plan cautiously, avoid blindly increasing positions during low-liquidity periods, and prevent passive stop-losses from amplifying potential losses.

Manyu

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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