WALLY is currently experiencing a short-term rebound driven by liquidity improvement. Investors are advised to adopt a trend-following strategy and strictly distinguish between a phase bottom rebound and a long-term upward breakout. Given that market sentiment remains cautious, with both trading volume and depth being weak, operations should start with small positions. Focus should be on the sustainability of BTC above $90,000 and changes in WALLY's trading volume. Lock in profits promptly during rebounds, strictly enforce stop-losses, and avoid liquidity exhaustion and sharp drawdown risks.

At the start of the year, the crypto market saw a rare upward breakout, with BTC briefly surpassing the $90,000 mark, and most major and some altcoins rising by more than 20%, leading to a moderate improvement in overall liquidity. However, key indicators show the market is still in a 'recovery' phase, with overall market capitalization yet to return to previous highs, and the sentiment index dominated by fear. As a mid-to-small cap token, WALLY could see a slight short-term rebound following broader market sentiment, but faces significant pullback risk if trading volume and hype subside.

At the start of the year, the crypto market saw a rare upward breakthrough with BTC surpassing $90,000 and major altcoins like ETH and SOL rising. Several altcoins, including PEPE and IP, surged over 20%. However, key indicators show the market is still in a "price repair" phase with overall market cap below previous highs, a low altseason index, and fear-dominated sentiment. While some view this as a buying opportunity amid improving liquidity and macroeconomic developments, caution remains advised.

Speculation sentiment rises again at the beginning of the year, is the altcoin season repeating?

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

Although rising liquidity may bring about a phased bottom rebound, from a macro cycle perspective, trading volume and fee levels still cannot support a sustained upward breakout. Some well-known analysts expect a 'bottom rebound' in the short term but remain cautious on the long-term trend. For WALLY, it is necessary to strictly follow trend investing principles: enter opportunistically in a bull market, and exit decisively in a bear or choppy market to avoid losses from deep drawdowns.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

Historical data shows that in low-activity, niche markets, trading is concentrated in a few leading contracts, with over 90% of short-term contracts seeing no trades within 24 hours. WALLY's trading depth is relatively limited and is susceptible to impacts from large orders and sudden shifts in sentiment. It is recommended to strictly set stop-losses, control individual position sizes, and closely monitor changes in trading volume concentration to prevent slippage and liquidation risks caused by liquidity exhaustion.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Wally The Whale

US inflation surged in April, but Bitcoin held strong above the $80K mark.

The US consumer price index jumped 3.8% on a year-on-year basis, outstripping workers’ earnings for the first time in three years and marking the highest inflation print since May 2023. @mckonomy has more

Live markets: Bitcoin holds $80,000 as stocks sink, yields rise on ugly inflation print

Fed’s Goolsbee: We have an inflation problem in this country

U.S. Inflation Jumps 3.8%, the Fastest Rate in 3 Years

Goolsbee: April Consumer Price Index Service Sector Inflation is the Worst

Goolsbee: The United States Faces Inflation Issues

Hot inflation data pours cold water on Federal Reserve rate cut hopes

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