BTCB is currently exhibiting a narrow high-level consolidation pattern, with the $85,000-$94,000 range becoming the core battleground between bulls and bears. Key support is concentrated around $87,000, and a breakdown below $86,700 may trigger large-scale long liquidations, accelerating downside risk. Resistance is concentrated at $95,000-$98,140; a breakout and stabilization above $95,466 could ignite short liquidations and further push prices upward. Losses among short-term holders are limiting sell pressure, forming a temporary support; however, once the price approaches $100,000, concentrated selling may emerge. Options market positioning suggests institutions expect stronger future volatility—it is recommended to closely monitor support levels, flexibly use options to manage potential sharp moves, ensure risk control, and dynamically adjust strategies.

Since the beginning of the year, the Bitcoin market has experienced phases of low liquidity and ETF risk-off adjustment, but recently the price has been consolidating narrowly in the $85,000-$94,000 range, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish forces at this level. Participants are cautiously optimistic, and barring major negative events in the short term, the market is likely to maintain a consolidation pattern or even attempt a minor move higher.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Bitfinex Alpha report highlights that after a month of low liquidity and reduced volatility, Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilization and minor reversal in early 2026, trading within a narrow range of $85,000 to $94,000. The ETF-driven sell-off slowed significantly by the end of last year, suggesting the "de-risking" phase may be over. Strategy has increased Bitcoin holdings for several weeks, with market liquidity expected to improve in early 2026.

Bitfinex: Bitcoin is fluctuating narrowly between $85K and $94K, and liquidity conditions may improve.

Recent trading volume has concentrated around $87,000, forming a prominent area of buying support and providing a near-term lower bound. If price falls below $86,700 or $86,170, more than $1 billion in long positions could be liquidated, potentially intensifying downside pressure. Resistance lies at $95,000-$98,140; if bulls manage to break and hold above $95,466, more than $1 billion in short positions may be liquidated, fueling rapid upward momentum.

On January 4, analyst Murphy noted that BTC's chip concentration within 5% of the January 1 price dropped from 14.9% to 14.5% by January 3, while BTC's price slowly rose. Historical data suggests that a decline in concentration amid rising prices indicates continued price increase. Significant BTC accumulation at $87,000 supports a range of $92,000-$104,000. Technical signals suggest a rebound is more likely than a false breakout unless BTC falls below $87,000.

Analysis: BTC chip concentration decreases, chip structure support is effective, rebound probability is higher than a false breakout followed by further decline.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $89,266, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.396 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $98,140, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.245 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $89,266, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.396 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,724, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.309 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,466, the total short position liquidation on major CEX will reach $1.013 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,724, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.309 billion.

Short-term holders currently have an average cost higher than current prices, with these losses limiting sell pressure and providing some price support. However, if the price nears or surpasses the $100,000 level, these holders could see their breakeven improve, potentially leading to concentrated selling and price pressure. Furthermore, if Bitcoin closes above the average cost of short-term holders, it will serve as a significant bullish confirmation signal.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

Some large traders have established straddle option positions in the $80,000 to $120,000 range, indicating expectations for significant price movement in the coming months. The increase in call contracts and widening equilibrium points suggest the market is preemptively pricing in potential breakouts or pullbacks. Should macro or headline catalysts emerge, option bulls could quickly profit, potentially leading to substantial volatility in the near term.

A trader on Deribit has invested approximately $2.36 million in a "straddle" options strategy on Bitcoin, purchasing 660 call options at a $120,000 strike price for about $860,000 and 660 put options at an $80,000 strike price for about $1.5 million. Both sets expire on March 27, 2026, indicating the trader expects significant BTC price volatility by the end of March, with potential upward movement of $28,000 or downward movement of $12,000.

Data: A trader invested $2.36M to buy 660 BTC, 120K call options, and 80K put options.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Bitcoin on Base

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The US March non-farm payroll report will be released tonight at 8:30 PM, with an expected increase of 60K jobs.

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The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April reaches 99.5%.

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ECB Governing Council member Villeroy: The next key interest rate adjustment is very likely to be an increase.

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