ONE is currently constrained by declining ecosystem vitality and weak end-user demand, and is trapped in repeated fluctuations within the $0.00205~$0.00226 range. Market sentiment has turned cautious, derivatives markets are dominated by bears, and short-term trading volumes have shrunk, leading to weak momentum for rebounds. In the short term, there is a risk of further pullbacks to $0.00210 or below. It is advisable to control long positions at high levels, pay attention to ecosystem recovery and changes in developer activity, and adopt a defensive allocation strategy before a clear fundamental improvement is observed. Wait for confirmation of bottom structure and capital inflows before considering entry.

Recently, ONE has continued to rebound from around $0.00205 to near $0.00226, but trading volume surged on April 3 and then quickly fell back. Derivatives data shows that short positions dominate the Bitcoin market, with the 30-day position index falling from +3.0 to -3.1, resulting in a series of liquidations depleting long positions. The overall tone has shifted from chasing gains to caution, as short-term capital now prefers risk aversion. When the price approaches key psychological resistance levels, quick pullbacks are likely, so one should beware of the risks associated with chasing rebounds with insufficient momentum.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr reports that Bitcoin's derivatives market is dominated by short positions, with the 30-day moving average of the Bitcoin position index falling from +3.0 to -3.1 since mid-March, reflecting growing short accumulation and a weakening market structure. Liquidation oscillation has risen to 18.6%, indicating ongoing forced liquidations of long positions. The market shows no signs of a bullish reversal, suggesting continued downside risk and advising risk avoidance.

Analyst: Bitcoin derivatives market dominated by shorts, bulls continue to face liquidation pressure.

Since mid-March, after hitting a high of $0.00285, ONE entered a downward consolidation channel and broke below the $0.00210 support level at the end of March, after which it again struggled to recover. On the developer side, the overall blockchain industry has slowed, and the Harmony ecosystem has also seen a decrease in incidents and contributors. This will hinder protocol iteration and expansion of ecosystem applications. Without continued developer investment and community building, network utility and value growth could be constrained in the mid- to long-term.

Despite a significant slowdown in the blockchain industry, Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Polygon remain the top blockchains by developer activity. Ethereum leads with 50.6K developer events, though down 17.79%, followed by BNB Chain and Polygon with notable declines as well. Other blockchains like Optimism, Arbitrum, Avalanche, Solana, Cosmos, Harmony, and Cardano also saw decreases in developer events and contributors, reflecting shifting industry dynamics.

Top 10 Blockchains by Developer Activity: Ethereum and BNB Chain Dominate

The number of retail crypto investors in major Asian markets continues to decline. Regulatory uncertainty, frequent security incidents, rising tax costs, and high user barriers, together with insufficient industry trust, are all holding back enthusiasm from new users entering the market. As an ecosystem token, if ONE fails to provide localized education and compliance support for different regions, it may miss out on user growth opportunities in the next bull market, thereby impairing the intrinsic drivers of network value.

Tiger Research's report analyzes the decline of retail cryptocurrency investors despite rapid market growth, focusing on nine major Asian markets. It identifies five core barriers—regulatory uncertainty, security risks, tax burdens, usability challenges, and social perception—that hinder new user adoption. The report details diverse regulatory and market conditions across Northeast and Southeast Asia, examines exchange strategies for user acquisition, and highlights the need for localized education, transparency, and trust-building before the next crypto bull market.

Tiger Research: Analysis of the Current Status of Retail Investors in Nine Major Asian Markets

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