In the short term, ID was impacted by geopolitical shocks and increased market risk aversion, quickly releasing selling pressure after breaking below the $0.045 support. Although institutional allocations to mainstream crypto assets have boosted market sentiment, ID's rebound momentum remains relatively limited, indicating ongoing divergence between bulls and bears and that the valuation recovery is not yet complete. If oil prices stabilize, the US dollar index declines, and the Fed signals further easing, ID is expected to see a structural rebound within the $0.040~0.043 range. It is advised to closely monitor shifts in market risk appetite, participate in range trading opportunistically, and strictly control position sizes and stop-losses.

Recently, due to the blockage of the Gulf Strait leading to a surge in oil prices and fears of stagflation, global risk aversion has sharply increased, with capital flocking to the US dollar and other traditional safe-haven assets, putting overall pressure on risk assets. Against this backdrop, ID experienced consecutive declines from late February to early March, with daily closes repeatedly falling below the critical $0.045 support. Trading volume surged during peak selling periods, indicating weak short-term market sentiment and dominance of bearish forces.

The global financial market faces a perilous crossroads amid a perfect storm driven by geopolitical tensions, notably the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz causing a severe oil supply shock and reviving stagflation fears. This has led to a massive sell-off in risk assets and a flight to the US dollar as the sole safe haven. Concurrently, the oil crisis has sparked intense on-chain speculation in crypto markets, while AI advancements fuel a trillion-dollar investment wave despite rising cybersecurity risks. Bitcoin, caught between these macro forces, struggles with its narrative as digital gold, facing extreme volatility and polarized market sentiment. Its future hinges on a prolonged battle between short-term macro traders and long-term ETF investors amid ongoing geopolitical and economic turmoil.

Crypto Market Macro Report: Oil Hurricane, AI Tsunami, and Bitcoin at a Crossroads

The global financial market faces a systemic reevaluation driven by geopolitical conflicts, with oil prices surging due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade and stagflation risks overtaking inflation concerns. The US dollar strengthens as a safe haven, while AI advances rapidly with significant government investment and projects like OpenClaw igniting market enthusiasm. Bitcoin, caught in this macro turmoil, falls below $70,000 amid extreme market fear, yet ETF inflows suggest ongoing long-term investor confidence, positioning Bitcoin at a critical crossroads between collapse and resurgence.

Crypto Market Macro Report: The Crossroads of Bitcoin Amid Oil Hurricanes and AI Waves

In mid-March, Bitcoin and Ethereum, as 'digital gold,' attracted institutional capital, briefly buoying market sentiment. However, prior valuation bubbles had been released, and on-chain aSOPR remained consistently below 1.0, showing that extensive unrealized profits did not result in significant profit-taking, leaving most holders still at a loss. Although ID’s price rebounded from around $0.0415 to near $0.043 following the recovery of major assets, the increase in trading volume was limited, failing to establish a solid breakout. This suggests that as the overall market valuation recovery remains incomplete, subsequent divergence between bulls and bears persists.

Bitcoin and Ethereum have recently outperformed gold and global stocks amid geopolitical tensions, highlighting demand for safe-haven assets. Institutional investors, led by Strategy dubbed the "last central bank of Bitcoin," are increasing holdings, with Strategy adding 22,337 BTC at an average cost of $75,696. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.1 billion in inflows, mainly from institutional investors, while long-term holders remain strong, reinforcing Bitcoin's role as "digital gold."

Analysis: Bitcoin Outperforms Gold and Stock Markets Amid Global Turmoil, with Increased Accumulation in ETFs and Strategies

Analyst Axel's latest report indicates that the Bitcoin market's overheating has completely dissipated, with the MVRV Z-Score dropping 74% from its 2025 peak, confirming the valuation bubble is cleared. However, selling pressure remains high, as the aSOPR has stayed below 1.0 for 55 consecutive trading days, signaling ongoing loss-selling. The market lacks clear reversal signals, and selling pressure has not yet eased.

Analyst: The overheating in the crypto market has been completely eliminated, but selling pressure has not yet dried up.

Signs of easing in the latest Gulf situation have stabilized oil prices and lifted market risk appetite to some extent. Bitcoin’s successful break above $70,000 and significant ETF inflows provided short-term upward momentum to the sector. ID also formed a bottom at the $0.04 support and attempted to push toward the $0.043 resistance. If the US dollar index remains sideways or weakens slightly and the Fed further signals policy easing, ID is likely to attract new buying momentum within the current range, presenting a structural rebound opportunity.

Everest

Fed rate cut chance hits zero, threatening stagflation where Bitcoin thrives as a hedge against long term inflation

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April has dropped to 93.8%.

Bank of America: Maintains a bearish outlook on the dollar in the medium term.

FED Member Christopher Waller Explained Why He Changed His Mind on Cutting Interest Rates

HSBC: Maintains expectation that the Federal Reserve will hold steady for the next two years

HSBC: The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the next two years.

Gold sees biggest weekly fall in 43 years as Iran war rages on

HSBC: Maintains Expectation of No Fed Rate Changes This Year and Next

Bitcoin Defies Global Selloff, Holding Strong Above $69K Support

Middle East conflict and interest rate hike expectations resonate: global assets experience major turmoil, US stocks decline for four consecutive weeks, bond market "bloodbath," gold records largest weekly drop in 43 years.

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