Currently, the XBT market is characterized by intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears. In the short term, short-term holders are experiencing unrealized losses, which suppresses active selling pressure and provides initial support for the price within the $89,200–$90,500 range. However, once the price climbs above their average entry cost, a wave of profit-taking is likely to emerge, which would significantly increase downward pressure. In the derivatives market, widespread straddle options strategies are betting on significant volatility within the next two months, and the elevated volatility premium suggests the market could face sudden price moves. Regarding key price levels, a breakout above $94,300–$95,600 may trigger short liquidations, intensifying upward momentum; conversely, a fall below $86,100–$87,100 could result in leveraged long liquidations and prompt a sharp pullback. Investors are advised to be wary of the pullback risks from excessive long concentration and guard against extreme market swings, while keeping an eye on mid-to-long term allocation opportunities amid potential policy improvement and increased institutional inflows on dips.

On-chain data shows that most short-term holders are currently at an unrealized loss, with market price below their average acquisition cost, making it difficult to generate additional selling pressure and thus lending certain price resilience during pullbacks. However, as price approaches or exceeds the average cost basis, holders’ motivation for profit-taking will rise, and large-scale realization may quickly turn into downward pressure. In the short run, this structure offers moderate support for prices; in the medium term, however, there remains a risk of the cost basis area becoming a source of resistance.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel noted that the current BTC price rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This loss limits their selling potential, easing downward pressure. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal would be BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

On the derivatives front, a straddle option strategy worth over $2.3 million has been deployed, buying a call option with a $120,000 strike and a put option with a $80,000 strike, both expiring at the end of March. This reflects market expectations for significant price swings within the next two months. While this strategy is directionally neutral, it is highly sensitive to volatility, indicating that institutions are using options to hedge against possible sharp moves both up and down, with short-term risk and trading opportunities rising in tandem.

A trader on Deribit has invested approximately $2.36 million in a "straddle" options strategy on Bitcoin, purchasing 660 call options at a $120,000 strike price for about $860,000 and 660 put options at an $80,000 strike price for about $1.5 million. Both sets expire on March 27, 2026, indicating the trader expects significant BTC price volatility by the end of March, with potential upward movement of $28,000 or downward movement of $12,000.

Data: A trader invested $2.36M to buy 660 BTC, 120K call options, and 80K put options.

Multiple data platforms indicate that if prices break above the $94,300–$95,600 range, it could trigger more than $2.5 billion in short liquidations, resulting in an accelerated rally; conversely, a drop below $86,100–$87,100 would trigger over $1.8 billion in long liquidations, posing a rapid downside risk. Currently, after testing support at $89,200, the price has stabilized and rebounded to around $90,500. The perpetual contract funding rate remains positive across platforms, suggesting that there is still strong willingness among bulls to add leverage, yet the highly concentrated positioning among longs also increases the risk of swift declines if support fails.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $95,649, the total short position liquidations on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.532 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $87,099, the total long position liquidations on major CEXs will amount to $1.87 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $95,649, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.532 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $94,311, the total short position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.798 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $86,127, the total long position liquidation on major CEX will amount to $1.834 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $94,311, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.798 billion.

Bitcoin rebounded to around $90,500 after testing a key support near $89,200, marking its third consecutive day of pullback following a peak near $95,000. The decline is attributed to low trading volume and profit-taking. Market leverage is rising, with perpetual contract funding rates positive, indicating traders are using leverage to buy the dip. However, this concentrated long positioning increases the risk of forced liquidations and additional selling pressure if prices fall further.

Analysis: The key support level for Bitcoin is around $89,200, with traders still using leverage to buy the dip.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,170, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.229 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,088, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.225 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,170, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.229 billion.

Authoritative reports suggest that the traditional 'four-year Bitcoin cycle' may be gradually breaking down. Expectations for Fed easing, improvements in regulatory frameworks, and institutional participation have boosted long-term fundamentals. Although probabilistic pricing for $150,000 by year-end remains low, an optimistic outlook is already evident in the market. Meanwhile, trends like real-world asset tokenization and expanding stablecoin use cases are providing new momentum for on-chain bulk asset migration and financial infrastructure development. Repeated record highs in both domestic and international stock markets are also lifting overall risk appetite, laying an institutional and capital foundation for the long-term upside in crypto assets.

Bybit's 2026 Crypto Outlook report suggests the traditional Bitcoin "four-year cycle" may no longer apply directly to the current market. Key points include potential support from expected Fed easing, a 10.3% implied chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end, increased institutional participation, improved regulation, and macroeconomic support disrupting old cycles. Tokenization of real-world assets and expanding stablecoin use are highlighted as major 2026 themes.

"The Four-Year Cycle" Is No Longer a Universal Formula? Bybit Releases 2026 Cryptocurrency Outlook Report

On January 7, U.S. stock markets closed mixed with the Dow up 0.99%, S&P 500 up 0.6%, and Nasdaq up 0.65%, all hitting new highs. Cryptocurrency stocks showed varied performance: Coinbase fell 1.71%, Circle rose 0.06%, and Strategy (MSTR) dropped 4.1%. After MSCI announced it would not remove DAT companies from its index, some DAT stocks, including MSTR, surged in after-hours trading, with MSTR rising 7.17%.

U.S. crypto stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with MSTR down 4.1%, but rising 7.17% in after-hours trading due to positive news.

The Bank of Canada: The Iran war should not overshadow other economic risks.

Global markets are fretting about growth due to the war in Iran. A slowdown is something stocks can handle. However, the risk that the global economy tips the wrong way is also increasing.

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Bitunix Analyst: Employment Cooling Combined with Further Energy Contraction, War Spillover to Tech Infrastructure, Market Enters "Risk Pricing Distortion" Phase

Goldman Sachs: Fed's rate hike expectations remain low for the year

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