PORTX is currently in the initial stage of market sentiment recovery, but lacks a clear directional trend. Price rebounds are accompanied by high volatility, with false breakout risks still present. After large-scale deleveraging, leverage levels have returned to a healthy state. Funding rates have rebounded but do not indicate speculative overheating. In the short term, range-bound fluctuations are expected (key support at $1.85, resistance at $2.20 should be closely monitored). Macro and policy events in 2026 are expected to intensify short-term volatility, so it is advisable to adjust positions flexibly and participate with an event-driven strategy. For long-term allocation, focus on high-quality sectors and targets with policy certainty, while in the short term, seize structural opportunities arising from liquidity focus.

Recently, the overall sentiment in the crypto market has shown signs of improvement, with bulls attempting to regain the initiative, but a sustained unilateral trend has yet to develop. In the short term, price rebounds are often accompanied by significant volatility. Investors should remain cautious of false breakout risks and monitor trading volumes and open interest changes to judge real trend reversals.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Matrixport's research suggests that 2026 may be a year of high volatility in pricing, with outcomes determined by event windows. The market is unlikely to show a single directional trend, as policy and crypto events alternate in dominance, making flexibility a key competitive advantage.

Matrixport Research: 2026 Could Be a Year of High Volatility Pricing, Event Windows Determine Outcomes

Since the end of last year, the derivatives market has liquidated nearly $30 billion in leveraged positions, bringing overall leverage to a relatively healthy state. At the same time, perpetual contract funding rates have rebounded to annual averages but have not shown sustained increases, indicating the market is not in a speculative-driven bull phase. Short-term movements are likely to remain range-bound.

Matrixport highlights that perpetual contract funding rates remain a key indicator of crypto market volatility. Past altcoin "mini bull markets" in 2024 saw sharp funding rate increases, while corrections led to rapid declines and deleveraging. These fluctuations were short-lived, driven mainly by speculative funds. Typically, funding rates hover around an annualized +5%. A true upcoming altcoin bull market is likely to feature a sustained rise in funding rates, remaining above normal levels for an extended period.

Matrixport: The next round of altcoin market, closer to a "real bull market," will most likely be accompanied by a more sustained rise in funding rates.

Matrixport's latest analysis indicates that after a significant deleveraging in the derivatives market, the crypto market may establish a more solid foundation for a new rally in 2026. Since October 2025, nearly $30 billion in leverage from BTC and ETH futures contracts has been cleared, resulting in lighter positions and lower leverage. This shift is expected to bring prices closer to fundamental values and open up upside potential as speculative overheating cools down.

Matrixport: After the clearing of derivative leverage, a new round of market trends may begin in 2026 on a more robust foundation.

Multiple macro and policy events are set to intersect in 2026, including changes in Federal Reserve leadership, election-year policy risks, the implementation of the EU’s MiCA, and the Mt. Gox repayment window. These will act as catalysts for short-term market volatility. Flexible position management and event-driven strategies will become increasingly important.

Matrixport forecasts 2026 as a high-risk year for digital assets, marked by key events such as changes in Federal Reserve leadership, a weak labor market, heightened election-year policy risks, and intense crypto sector developments including EU MiCA implementation, major protocol upgrades, and Mt. Gox repayment deadlines. The year will see frequent macroeconomic catalysts and volatility across asset classes, urging investors to stay flexible and actively manage positions.

Matrixport: 2026 Will Be a High-Risk Year for Digital Assets

In the short term, market liquidity is highly focused on a few hot topics, and overall trading activity is limited. In contrast, markets linked to long-term or macro-political themes display more stable capital support. Under these conditions, PORTX needs to balance mid- and long-term value logic with the temporary trading opportunities presented by event windows.

ChainPort

Crypto traders fade 2026 Fed cuts as U.S. unemployment dips, but risk assets hold bid

The IMF calls on the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates.

The Federal Reserve expects to cut interest rates twice this year to support the labor market.

CICC: Investment demand and prices for gold may both have room for upward correction.

Stronger, broader hiring could ease Fed job market worries

Fed's Daly: The Federal Reserve should focus on the employment rate rather than employment data.

Market Edges Higher; Strong U.S. Jobs Data Complicates Rate Outlook

KPMG: The Federal Reserve is expected to be forced to raise interest rates in the second half of the year.

Trump warns of more strikes after Iran bridge attack, Bitcoin retreats

Market Analysis: Significant Increase in Non-Farm Payrolls Eases Employment Market Concerns, Fed's Cautious Stance Expected to Continue

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