The current market performance of MPS is mainly driven by sentiment, lacking the support of trading volume. The sustainability of the short-term uptrend is questionable, and there are significant risks of pullback. Combined with the liquidity structure of the Polymarket platform, short-term trading faces high slippage risks and fragmented transactions. It is recommended to adopt a range-bound trading approach and strictly control take-profit and stop-loss levels. In the medium and long-term, MPS relies on the catalyst of macro events and hedging demand, possessing structural allocation value. Gradual accumulation on dips is advised, with a focus on the key support range of 2.30–2.50.

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown marginal improvement, and overall sentiment has been buoyed. Against this backdrop, MPS may see tentative short-term rallies. However, as verifiable continuous buying and trading volume have yet to fully materialize, the current upward movement is more sentiment-driven rather than trend-confirmed. Investors should be wary of short-term pullback risks and are advised to adopt a range-trading mentality, strictly setting take-profit and stop-loss levels.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Trading data show that the short-term contract market on the Polymarket platform is highly fragmented, with most contracts experiencing no transactions within 24 hours. Overall liquidity is insufficient, leading to increased slippage risks for short-term MPS trades. At the same time, long-term contracts, driven by macro-political hedging demand, concentrate the majority of trading volume, providing relatively stable value support for MPS. Based on this, short-term traders should be cautious of liquidity traps, while long-term allocators may focus on the potential opportunities presented by the asset’s macro-event hedging characteristics.

Meupass

Fed rate cut chance hits zero, threatening stagflation where Bitcoin thrives as a hedge against long term inflation

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April has dropped to 93.8%.

Bank of America: Maintains a bearish outlook on the dollar in the medium term.

FED Member Christopher Waller Explained Why He Changed His Mind on Cutting Interest Rates

HSBC: Maintains expectation that the Federal Reserve will hold steady for the next two years

HSBC: The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the next two years.

Gold sees biggest weekly fall in 43 years as Iran war rages on

HSBC: Maintains Expectation of No Fed Rate Changes This Year and Next

Bitcoin Defies Global Selloff, Holding Strong Above $69K Support

Middle East conflict and interest rate hike expectations resonate: global assets experience major turmoil, US stocks decline for four consecutive weeks, bond market "bloodbath," gold records largest weekly drop in 43 years.

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