Under the current rise in macro uncertainty and the market's risk-aversion sentiment, BANANA maintains a clear downward trend, with continued weakness in technicals and a lack of reversal signals. Daily structure has broken key supports at 3.9 and 3.7, with insufficient rebound momentum, indicating that the downward momentum has not reached an inflection point. It is expected that there will be ongoing pressure to re-test the 3.5 or even lower range in the short term. It is recommended to control risk exposure, avoid chasing rebounds, and wait for risk appetite to recover and for technicals to show effective stabilization signals before considering entry.

Latest macro news indicates ongoing credit tightening, intensifying investor concerns about liquidity risks; meanwhile, persistently high natural gas prices reflect shrinking disposable income for consumers, further dampening demand for high-risk assets. With high inflation expectations and the combined effect of geopolitical conflict risks, institutional investors are showing tendencies to stay on the sidelines or reduce risk exposure, as funds favor safer assets. As a highly-leveraged derivative, BANANA will face short-term pressure from declining macro risk appetite, with sentiment tilted toward bearishness.

From daily chart performance, BANANA has been in a downtrend since the March 7 high at 5.517, forming a series of bearish candles with lower opens or upper shadows, consecutively breaking through key supports at 3.9, 3.7, and 3.5. Despite minor rebounds in recent days, trading volume simultaneously shrank, failing to show effective volume expansion, indicating insufficient buying strength and a channel-like downward price structure. Currently, the candlestick pattern shows no double-bottom, hammer, or divergence signals, and short-term weakness persists. Coupled with the backdrop of declining macro risk appetite, this technical setup suggests the downward trend is likely to continue.

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