The current market is experiencing heightened FOMO sentiment. In the short term, improved liquidity and retail buying have fueled expectations of a rebound, and BTC is likely to test the key resistance range of $45,000–$47,000. However, caution is advised against chasing prices at highs; if trading volume and capital flows reverse, a pullback may occur. The medium- to long-term price structure remains under pressure, as the macro environment and supply side have not shown substantive improvement. Investors are advised to anchor their strategies to value reversion, maintain flexible positions, be cautious against short-term volatility, and avoid blindly chasing highs.

Signs of market liquidity improvement have emerged recently, with several on-chain analysts noting that buying interest is picking up and retail sentiment is surging on social media. As Bitcoin approaches psychological thresholds, panic-driven pursuit of price increases may be amplified, and without proper control, many could be trapped at high levels. While initial signs of a short-term rebound and bottoming are evident, excessive inflow of short-term funds often leads to selling pressure near peaks, so it's important to closely monitor reversal signals in trading volume and capital flows.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Santiment analysts note that retail investor sentiment on social media has been strong at the start of the year, reflecting a positive mood after the holidays. However, they caution that the market's further rise depends on retail investors maintaining caution and not succumbing to excessive FOMO. A rapid Bitcoin surge to $92,000 could trigger significant FOMO, which historically signals potential market downturns following peaks.

Santiment: Retail sentiment started the year positively; if Bitcoin quickly rises to $92K, it could trigger FOMO.

Although the prospect of a bull market is enticing, several strategists maintain a bearish stance based on current trading volume and fee data, arguing that macro liquidity has not fully recovered and the price structure lacks sustained upward momentum. There is a clear divide between optimists and pessimists in the market; although bears are often criticized, their warnings regarding trading volume and supply should not be ignored. In the medium to long term, investors should anchor to value reversion, remain patient, and avoid being swayed by short-term sentiment.

JackYi, founder of Liquid Capital, tweeted that before the big bull market in 2026, short sellers who close positions early will suffer small losses, while those who close later will face heavy losses. He noted that current market pessimists are either just talk or destined to fail. After over a month of market fluctuations, the bulls will prevail, with pessimists always being right but optimists always moving forward.

JackYi: The shorts closed early with a small loss, but closing later will result in a big loss.

FOMO

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in April reaches 98.4%.

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