LOCK benefits from the recovery of liquidity in the crypto market and the spillover from rebounds in major assets, providing clear stage-bottom support. Institutional funds are flowing back and short covering pressure is released, bringing short-term upward momentum for LOCK. Currently, market liquidity is concentrated and short-term volatility is high. It is recommended that investors focus on medium- to long-term trend investing, optimize allocation, target a breakout in the 0.85~1.10 range, and be wary of pullback risks caused by short-term capital outflows.

Although specific candlestick data is limited, the overall crypto market volume is gradually recovering. The rebound in major asset prices injects a spillover effect into smaller-cap assets like LOCK, and multiple trend signals are brewing initial changes. Asian market activity has increased significantly, and after year-end tax loss trading, institutions are gradually returning, driving up volatility in both spot and options markets, thus providing stagewise support for LOCK.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Veteran institutional founders repeatedly emphasize that short selling power in the market is now in its final stage, and a wave of short covering may stimulate short-term tightening and accelerate price appreciation. In the current environment, respecting professional research and focusing on medium- and long-term trends will become the mainstream market strategy. As a token with growth potential, LOCK is expected to leverage this wave of trend investing to attract more structured capital allocation, forming sustained driving force.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua reflects on a decade in crypto, emphasizing the importance of trend investing and ignoring short-term fluctuations. He notes that bears are making a last effort, betting on a four-year cycle, US AI bubble, and liquidity decline, but these have failed. Their short positions will fuel the upcoming rally. Yi urges focus on investment research and respecting professional analysts, with Liquid Capital committed to learning and progress.

Yi Lihua: The bears are still making their final efforts, which will become the fuel for the upward movement.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua reflects on a decade in crypto, emphasizing the importance of improving investment and trading understanding, focusing on trend investing, and ignoring short-term fluctuations. He notes that bears are making a last effort, betting on factors like the four-year cycle and liquidity decline, but these bets are failing and will fuel a short squeeze during the market rise. He urges focus on professional research and continuous learning.

Yi Lihua: Bears are making their final efforts, which will become fuel for the upward movement.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

Prediction market data shows that liquidity is highly concentrated in a few contracts, short-term market survival rates are low, and overall depth and breadth are stratified. LOCK faces similar liquidity distribution features; short-term speculators are easily affected by one-sided market moves, while long-term strategists can enter opportunistically supported by platform incentives and major narratives to capture relative premium opportunities.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Houdini Swap

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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