KIBSHI currently benefits from an overall improvement in market sentiment. In the short term, spot demand dominates trading and provides some upward momentum. However, due to limited liquidity depth, prices are vulnerable to large trades, and speculative risks remain. In the medium to long term, if its underlying ecosystem continues to improve, it has the potential to attract mainstream capital, with a possible stage-by-stage valuation increase. Strategy recommendation: In the short term, focus on high volatility opportunities within the $1.08-$1.25 range, manage positions to guard against liquidity event risks; over the medium and long term, dynamically adjust allocations based on ecosystem progress, buy on dips, hold core positions, and pay attention to trend dividends triggered by macro and industry cycle resonance.

Recently, the crypto asset market has shifted from deleveraging to moderate expansion, with risk appetite increasing. Bitcoin indicators show the current rise is mainly driven by spot demand, revealing a healthy market structure with reduced liquidation risk. Against this backdrop, investors' risk tolerance for altcoins is also rising, suggesting that positive sentiment should persist in the short term. For KIBSHI, this wave of sentiment recovery will support trading volumes and spreads, potentially providing short-term upward momentum.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Experience in managing prediction market funds shows that only a few platforms can overcome high volatility and inventory risks to secure long-term returns. As an immature trading asset, KIBSHI suffers from weak order book and market-making depth, and insufficient liquidity incentives make prices vulnerable to large trades. Short-term speculators may exploit high-frequency strategies, but in key event-driven scenarios, liquidity risks remain significant, requiring vigilance against substantial slippage and intraday price crashes.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Mainstream investors emphasize both value and trends, believing macro and industry cycles will shape the bull market landscape. If KIBSHI can continue to advance its underlying applications and ecosystem development, it could attract capital over the medium to long term. In the short term, the departure of pessimists may intensify volatility, but steadfast value investors will provide bottom support. As positive macro expectations persist, if KIBSHI’s ecosystem progress meets market expectations, there is room for a stage-wise valuation increase in the medium term.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

KiboShib

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