The marginal recovery of market liquidity is driving SHIFT to fluctuate upward in the short term, but long-term trading volume and the macro environment have not yet entered an expansion cycle, and overall market sentiment remains cautious. It is expected that SHIFT will fluctuate around its current value range. If mainstream coins continue to rise moderately, SHIFT may attract incremental capital inflows; conversely, a contraction in liquidity will intensify downside risks. Investors are advised to observe volume changes, confirm the continuation of a bullish trend before scaling in gradually, and implement dynamic take-profits within a 7%-12% range; if major support levels are breached, positions should be reduced promptly to control drawdowns. The overall strategy should follow mainstream trends, avoid chasing highs or selling in panic during periods of extreme sentiment, and aim for a balance of stable risk control and returns.

Since January, the marginal recovery in market liquidity has led to a staged price rebound. Current Z-score metrics and spot-driven mild expansion indicate a healthier bullish structure, significantly reducing forced liquidation risk. However, combined with trading volume and fee data, the long-term macro cycle is still on a downward path, and overall market sentiment remains cautious, lacking sufficient trading volume to sustain further advances. In the short term, SHIFT is likely to continue oscillating upward along this rebound channel, but medium to long term, attention must be paid to the risk of a pressured reversal in the overall trend.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

In Q4 2025, the crypto market underwent a systemic adjustment driven by liquidity contraction and institutional de-risking, entering a new phase of volatile recovery in December. This recovery is not a trend reversal but a market re-pricing around a new value center amid marginal macro liquidity improvement without entering an expansion cycle.

From Sharp Decline to Recovery: Liquidity Shift and Value Center Reconstruction

In the fourth quarter of last year, institutional de-risking caused a reshaping of the market’s value center. Although marginal liquidity has improved somewhat, it has not truly entered an expansion cycle, and prices are being repriced within a new value range. This process has spawned interaction effects among assets; as a mid and small-cap token, SHIFT is easily affected by the spillover effects of liquidity changes in Bitcoin and major altcoins. If mainstream assets continue to move up moderately, SHIFT may attract incremental funds; conversely, if liquidity contracts, its downside pressure will increase.

The trend investing philosophy emphasizes scaling in during bull markets and reducing positions during bear markets, avoiding frequent attempts to catch tops or bottoms. From a value and trend perspective, after switching between bull and bear markets, short covering or long liquidation can amplify volatility, so following the main trend helps reduce operational bias. For SHIFT, it is advisable to act in line with the trend, avoid aggressive chasing or panic selling during emotional extremes, and balance risk control and return through position management corresponding to highs and lows.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

Taking into account the short-term rebound, the reshaping of the liquidity center, and trend investing logic, SHIFT currently has the potential for an oscillating upward move, but attention must be paid to whether overall trading volume can continue to increase and whether macro liquidity truly enters an expansion cycle. Investors are advised to scale in gradually after confirming the continuation of a bullish trend and set dynamic take-profit targets; if the market turns downward, swiftly reduce positions to prevent drawdown risk.

Shift

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