In 2026, the crypto asset market is expected to gradually confirm its macro policy bottom and see a clearer global regulatory framework, leading to both volatility and structural opportunities. The reduction of leverage in derivatives and liquidity recovery are laying the foundation for market rebound. In the short- to medium-term, attention should be paid to the speed of capital inflows and the impact of volume-price relationships on price centers. The competitive landscape of the DEX sector is accelerating its differentiation, with platforms possessing technological and incentive innovation likely to achieve excess returns. Current market sentiment remains cautious, with short-term range-bound dominance (BTC reference: 31,200–38,900 USD), but the medium- to long-term risk-reward ratio is positively recovering. It is recommended to adopt diversified allocation and dynamic take-profit/stop-loss strategies, prioritize leading assets and high-potential targets, and patiently wait for a fully confirmed trend.

Multiple research institutions have pointed out that 2026 will be a year alternately dominated by policy and event-driven factors. At the Federal Reserve level, possible leadership changes and the realization of easing expectations may occur. Although monetary policy shifts and election year risks continue in the short term, this tends to intensify market volatility. Meanwhile, the rollout of EU MiCA, major protocol upgrades, and the approach of payment deadlines all spotlight event windows, creating an environment where regulatory uncertainty and institutional dividends co-exist for crypto assets. Overall, short-term sentiment remains cautious, but the medium- to long-term outlook is expected to become more definitive as the macro policy bottom is confirmed and regulatory frameworks become clear, ushering in a period where market value will be more evidently displayed.

Matrixport's research suggests that 2026 may be a year of high volatility in pricing, with outcomes determined by event windows. The market is unlikely to show a single directional trend, as policy and crypto events alternate in dominance, making flexibility a key competitive advantage.

Matrixport Research: 2026 Could Be a Year of High Volatility Pricing, Event Windows Determine Outcomes

Matrixport forecasts 2026 as a high-risk year for digital assets, marked by key events such as changes in Federal Reserve leadership, a weak labor market, heightened election-year policy risks, and intense crypto sector developments including EU MiCA implementation, major protocol upgrades, and Mt. Gox repayment deadlines. The year will see frequent macroeconomic catalysts and volatility across asset classes, urging investors to stay flexible and actively manage positions.

Matrixport: 2026 Will Be a High-Risk Year for Digital Assets

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan highlighted three key challenges for the crypto market to sustain its 2026 growth: avoiding large-scale market crashes like the October 2025 futures liquidation, passing the US Clarity Act currently under congressional review, and maintaining stock market stability to prevent drag on risk assets. Overcoming these challenges could allow the early 2026 gains in Bitcoin and Ethereum to continue throughout the year.

Bitwise CIO: The Crypto Market Must Overcome Three Major Challenges to Continue Rising Through 2026

Market traders still expect the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy by about 50 basis points in 2026.

Some analysts have observed initial signs of market improvement and trend reversal, although the sample size is still insufficient to confirm a unilateral trend. Meanwhile, company founders are emphasizing cross-market opportunities, especially the linkage between prediction markets and on-chain stocks, which may become an emerging growth point. With prices continuing their recent range-bound movement, it can be seen that sentiment is shifting from excessive pessimism to exploratory buying, and short-term focus should be on changes in volume and transaction structures.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

FalconX co-founder Joshua Lim stated that in 2026, the company will focus on prediction markets and on-chain stocks. Cross-market opportunities between crypto-related stocks and fundamental commodities are expected to be key growth areas.

FalconX Co-founder: The core focus in 2026 is prediction markets and on-chain stocks.

Since October 2025, over $30 billion in leveraged positions in futures contracts have been successively liquidated, significantly de-leveraging the derivatives market. This process has lowered overall market leverage, brought prices closer to fundamental values, and reduced the risk of sharp pullbacks caused by excessive speculation. Against this backdrop, if macro liquidity continues to be released, the market may embark on a new round of upward movement, though caution is advised over the risk of short-term retracement if the pace of capital inflows slows.

Matrixport's latest analysis indicates that after a significant deleveraging in the derivatives market, the crypto market may establish a more solid foundation for a new rally in 2026. Since October 2025, nearly $30 billion in leverage from BTC and ETH futures contracts has been cleared, resulting in lighter positions and lower leverage. This shift is expected to bring prices closer to fundamental values and open up upside potential as speculative overheating cools down.

Matrixport: After the clearing of derivative leverage, a new round of market trends may begin in 2026 on a more robust foundation.

The perpetual DEX market landscape is undergoing reshaping. At the start of the year, a single platform accounted for over 70% market share, but emerging platforms like Aster, Lighter, and EdgeX have diverted the flow, reducing the share of the leader to around 20%. The focus of competition is shifting from simple liquidity attraction to a comprehensive contest of technological performance, capital investment, and incentive mechanisms. In the future, depth, slippage, and fee rates are expected to become key factors for user choice, with the new landscape likely to foster more distinctive and competitive platforms.

At the beginning of the year, Hyperliquid dominated the Perp DEX market with over 70% share. However, in the second half, emerging Perp DEXs like Aster, Lighter, and EdgeX gained traction, reducing Hyperliquid's market share to around 20%. The market has now entered a new phase characterized by competition in technology, capital, incentives, and real demand.

Hotcoin Research | Review of Leading Perp DEXs: Cold Reflections Amid Data Frenzy and Outlook for 2026

Prediction market data shows that the probability of OKX going public this year is around 50%, and although the capital involved is limited, it demonstrates the market's strong interest in exchange assetization. Meanwhile, divergent expectations on Ethereum price highlight an intense speculative mindset regarding future volatility. Such information acts as a short-term catalyst based on sentiment and expectations, potentially amplifying price swings. At this stage, traders are advised to use diversified governance and dynamic take-profit/stop-loss strategies to flexibly respond to complex long-short market conditions.

According to Foresight News and Polymarket data, the market estimates a 52% probability that OKX will have an IPO in 2026. The current trading volume on this prediction market is $118K.

The probability of OKX having an IPO in 2026, as bet on Polymarket, is 52%.

After a historic streak, ChatGPT has made bold predictions for Ethereum's price in 2026, suggesting it could either drop to $1,500 or surge to $10,000 within the year.

After a Historic Red Streak, ChatGPT Drops Wild ETH Price Predictions for 2026

2026

Economist: US March CPI monthly rate may surge 1%, Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year.

Economists predict that the US CPI will increase by 1% month-over-month in March, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Slepne: The European Central Bank will discuss either raising interest rates or keeping them unchanged.

Economist: US March CPI monthly rate may surge 1%, the Fed may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year

Fed Rate Cut Bets Collapse as Jobs Data Shocks Markets; 10-year Treasury Yield Hits Critical Level

Trump: 178K new jobs and a 55% drop in trade deficit attributed to tariffs

"Federal Reserve Mouthpiece": Low Job Growth May Become the New Normal but Is Especially Vulnerable in the Context of War

"Federal Reserve Mouthpiece": Low Employment Growth May Become the New Normal but Especially Vulnerable in the Context of War

Next Week's Macro Outlook: The Iran War Will Continue to Dominate Market Sentiment, Fed Meeting Minutes Worth Watching

Next Week's Macro Outlook: Sixth Week of the War, Trump's Playbook is About to Collapse, CPI Will Surge, Gold Prices May Put on a Big Show

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