BTCZ's short-term support is concentrated in the $87,000–$89,000 range. Breaking below $86,700 will trigger large-scale long liquidations, with downside risk to $86,000. The key resistance above is at $95,000; a breakout could cause concentrated short liquidations and potentially propel a rapid rebound. Short-term holding costs are above the current price, limiting selling pressure during corrections, but as the price approaches $100,000, strong profit-taking pressure will emerge. In the long term, large on-chain holdings are declining, indicating weaker demand from institutional players; however, expectations of Asian liquidity and stablecoin practical application provide support for the future. It is suggested to closely monitor the $95,000 breakout and whale movements on-chain, seize opportunities for switching between long and short in the short term, and remain vigilant about risks of phase adjustments caused by main players moving chips in the medium and long term.

Currently, there is significant chip accumulation near $87,000, with bulls absorbing positions at this price and causing prices to fluctuate in the $92,000–$104,000 range. If $86,700 is breached, over $1 billion in long liquidations could be triggered, with a further drop to $86,000 potentially causing another $1.2 billion in additional liquidations. Conversely, a stable break above $95,000 may lead to over $1 billion in short liquidations, intensifying bullish counterattacks. Therefore, the $87,000–$89,000 range forms a solid short-term support, with $95,000 as the key resistance.

On January 4, analyst Murphy noted that BTC's chip concentration within 5% of the January 1 price dropped from 14.9% to 14.5% by January 3, while BTC's price slowly rose. Historical data suggests that a decline in concentration amid rising prices indicates continued price increase. Significant BTC accumulation at $87,000 supports a range of $92,000-$104,000. Technical signals suggest a rebound is more likely than a false breakout unless BTC falls below $87,000.

Analysis: BTC chip concentration decreases, chip structure support is effective, rebound probability is higher than a false breakout followed by further decline.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $89,266, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.396 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $98,140, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.245 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $89,266, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.396 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,724, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.309 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,466, the total short position liquidation on major CEX will reach $1.013 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,724, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.309 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,170, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.229 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,088, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.225 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,170, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.229 billion.

Most short-term holders are currently in an unrealized loss position, with average cost above market price, reducing the incentive for active profit-taking and thus weakening selling pressure during pullbacks. However, as the price approaches $100,000, short-term speculators may reach breakeven or even profit, precipitating notable profit-taking pressure. If the daily close stands above the average holding cost, it could signal a critical sentiment reversal for bulls in the short term.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

Excluding exchange-locked on-chain addresses, the actual holdings of large players are trending downward, signaling decreasing demand from major institutions. Nevertheless, the overall market atmosphere is recovering from the bottom, especially with increased trading activity in Asia, combined with potential demand from sovereign reserve countries using stablecoins in oil trading, which may provide long-term support for the market. While adjusting valuation models, it is necessary to closely watch large holding changes and the ongoing regional liquidity.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno stated that the market misinterprets whale behavior, as many large Bitcoin holders are consolidated within exchange addresses, leading to false assumptions of accumulation. Excluding exchange addresses shows whale balances are actually declining. He emphasized that true Bitcoin demand is slowing monthly and yearly, approaching negative territory, suggesting the need to update valuation models rather than relying solely on price cycles.

CryptoQuant Head of Research: Market Misjudges Whale Behavior, Bitcoin Real Demand Slows and Approaches Negative Territory

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

BitcoinZ

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Huatai Securities: March Nonfarm Payroll Data Reflects Resilience of the US Job Market, Inflation Becomes the Core Variable in Fed Policy

Crypto traders fade 2026 Fed cuts as U.S. unemployment dips, but risk assets hold bid

The IMF calls on the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates.

The Federal Reserve expects to cut interest rates twice this year to support the labor market.

CICC: Investment demand and prices for gold may both have room for upward correction.

Stronger, broader hiring could ease Fed job market worries

Fed's Daly: The Federal Reserve should focus on the employment rate rather than employment data.

US military activity in Iran drives prediction market surge for troop presence

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