Market liquidity and bullish sentiment are simultaneously recovering. HODL's integration with Bybit Alpha enhances trading activity, providing short-term value for participation. However, if Bitcoin approaches the critical resistance level of $100,000, short-term holders may realize profits collectively, potentially triggering a broader correction, and the risk to high beta assets like HODL becomes more pronounced. The strategy recommends phased positioning during bull market confirmation, closely monitoring ecosystem developments and market sentiment, setting clear stop-loss thresholds (preliminarily referring to 10% downside retracement), taking profit flexibly at higher levels, capturing structural upside opportunities while ensuring risk management.

The crypto market has recently shown signs of improvement, with both trading volume and market sentiment recovering. Short-term Bitcoin holders are reducing sell-offs due to cost losses, providing support; meanwhile, institutions are demonstrating increased bullish intent, with active long options strategies and straddle trading, indicating heightened expectations for upward volatility. The rebound in short-term liquidity and stabilization in technicals are jointly driving risk assets to recover, creating short-term long opportunities for popular altcoins.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Despite heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela reaching a peak early Saturday, Bitcoin's price remained resilient, stabilizing around $90,000 after briefly dipping below that level. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted Bitcoin's price staying above the 21-day moving average suggests potential continued gains in January. Jamie Cox from HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP indicated the market's reaction to the Venezuela situation may be limited, with possible impacts from the upcoming OPEC meeting.

Analysis: Market reaction to the situation in Venezuela may be limited, Bitcoin price remains strong.

HODL is officially included in Bybit Alpha’s direct trading section, enabling one-click trading without the need for additional wallet setup, greatly improving accessibility for retail investors. The trading interface tracks trending token movements in real time, facilitating market following and position management. Enhanced trading depth and convenience will boost confidence for both buyers and sellers, and are expected to notably increase HODL’s trading volume and market attention in the short term.

Bybit Alpha now supports direct trading of on-chain tokens $UFD and $HODL. Users can quickly trade these tokens by logging into Bybit Alpha without needing to set up a separate wallet, and can track popular token market trends in real time.

Bybit Alpha launches $UFD and $HODL brand new

Although short-term liquidity and bullish sentiment currently dominate, if Bitcoin price approaches critical resistance levels (such as near $100,000), stop-loss and profit-taking motivation among short-term holders will rapidly release, potentially exerting overall downward pressure. When the market experiences a significant correction, altcoins are typically the first to be sold off, and HODL is no exception. Traders need to closely monitor Bitcoin’s key support levels and sentiment indicators to lock in profits at the top in a timely manner.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

Reflecting the trend investing philosophy of experienced investors, it is recommended that investors gradually position during bull market confirmation, avoiding extreme actions of chasing highs or bottom-fishing. As an emerging on-chain token, HODL should be monitored for ecosystem development, upstream project progress, and community activity, with a focus on continuous value realization. At the same time, establish clear stop-loss and take-profit nodes to balance returns with risks.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

HODL

Crypto braces for volatility as Warsh hearing nears and rate cut odds slide

Economist: US March CPI monthly rate may surge 1%, Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year.

Economists predict that the US CPI will increase by 1% month-over-month in March, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Slepne: The European Central Bank will discuss either raising interest rates or keeping them unchanged.

Economist: US March CPI monthly rate may surge 1%, the Fed may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year

Trump’s statement boosts odds of Iranian regime falling by June 30 to 14%

US forces’ entry into Iran by April 30 market jumps to 86% amid clashes

Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 86.5% after F-15E recovery

US-Europe alliance strains over Iran conflict as ceasefire odds plummet

US considers seizing strategic islands near Iran, ceasefire odds plummet

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