Currently, the APY levels on Polymarket platform exhibit significant stratification. Mainstream, high-liquidity contracts (such as those with macro and geopolitical themes) maintain an annualized APY in the 8%-12% range, which is markedly better than the 3%-5% seen in short-term, low-liquidity products. The core reason for this structure is the concentration effect of trading volumes: popular contracts yield more stable fee income, improving capital efficiency for LPs. It is recommended that LPs focus their allocation on markets with abundant liquidity and deep trading, avoid zero-trade, high-risk products, and strategically deploy funds under macro and popular sectors to maximize risk-adjusted returns.

Latest data shows that over sixty percent of short-term contract markets saw zero trades within 24 hours, with total trading volume being only one-thirtieth of that in mainstream sports markets. This structure causes market makers in short-term contracts to bear far higher position risk without being able to earn sufficient trading fee income, thereby suppressing APY levels. Capital is more inclined towards blocks with higher liquidity, forming a clear stratification in returns.

Liquidity being highly concentrated in a few popular contracts means that high-frequency market makers can obtain more stable fee income from frequent matching trades, whereas ordinary LPs in low-frequency contracts face greater spread slippage and higher capital lock-up costs, putting pressure on APY levels. By contrast, the concentrated trading activity in hot contracts provides a more promising space for annualized returns.

Compared with short-term sports odds, markets with long-term macro and geopolitical themes demonstrate higher liquidity and greater trading depth. As investor demand for political event hedging rises, related contract capital efficiency improves, fee incomes become more attractive, and LPs are likely to obtain more stable APYs. These contracts also tend to have longer holding periods and relatively controlled volatility, making them more suitable for allocations that seek sustained returns.

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