This security incident caused panic selling and a surge in liquidity for PMX in the short term, with the price expected to fluctuate downward in the 5-10% range and heightened volatility risk before sentiment recovers. In the medium term, if the team completes the security fix as scheduled and fulfills compensation commitments, it will help restore market confidence and create a 'recovery expectation' driven rebound window. It is recommended to monitor the progress of patch audits and signals of trading volume recovery. Over the long term, structural divergence will become evident: leading contracts and macro topics dominate the traffic. PMX needs to accelerate product optimization and incentive mechanism iteration to solidify a foundation of high-quality liquidity, resist shocks from isolated incidents, and maintain competitiveness in the prediction market sector.

The Polycule bot was hacked, resulting in a theft of $230,000 in user funds—the first security incident affecting a prediction market bot, undermining trader confidence. Following the disclosure, panic quickly spread, and some holders accelerated sell-offs to realize losses, significantly increasing trading volume and intensifying price volatility in the short term. Sentiment indicators and trader psychology are skewed towards risk aversion, making it difficult for the negative impact to be digested quickly.

Polycule, a prediction market Telegram Bot project launched by PMX Trade and backed by AllianceDAO, was hacked, resulting in the theft of $230,000 in user funds. This incident marks the first well-known theft case involving a prediction market Bot.

Polycule, a prediction market TG Bot project, was hacked.

PMX's Polycule robot was hacked, resulting in a loss of approximately $230,000. The team announced that patches and audits will be completed before the weekend, and the robot will remain offline until then. Once back online, affected users' account balances will be restored to their pre-theft levels.

PMX: Polycule bot hacked, losing approximately $230K in funds.

The team has pledged to complete the patch and audit before the weekend and will restore damaged account balances once the bot is relaunched. This responsible approach helps ease user panic and boost trust. From a medium-term perspective, if the patch audit proceeds smoothly without further security concerns, the market may 'buy the expectation' of recovery, shifting sentiment from extreme pessimism to a recovery-driven rebound scenario.

Industry research shows that in the short term (within one day), trading volume in crypto prediction markets is sparse—only one-thirtieth that of sports markets. In the long term (over 30 days), political and geopolitical events are the primary source of mainstream liquidity. In the Polymarket ecosystem, a few top contracts account for nearly half of all trading volume, and prediction markets are rapidly polarizing toward high-frequency sports and macro-political hedging. Beyond repairing security, PMX needs to further optimize incentives and product direction to participate in deeper, long-term liquidity pools.

PMX500

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, setting up a communication challenge for Governor Kazuo Ueda as the foundering yen hovers near levels that have prompted past interventions.

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%, while the probability of a rate cut in June is only 4.7%.

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The US Treasury market is focusing on the Federal Reserve meeting, with the probability of a rate cut by the end of the year rising to 40%.

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