The current trend of ZBTC is highly guided by Bitcoin's key range ($87,000–$100,000), with the $87,000–$89,000 support and $95,000–$98,000 resistance acting as major long/short liquidation thresholds. Both technical factors and position structure indicate solid support below, while short-term volatility is intensifying. The options market shows heightened expectations for volatility between $80,000 and $120,000, with the overall bullish sentiment slightly prevailing. Strategy suggestion: focus on whether the $87,000 zone can hold. If it breaks down decisively, stop losses should be triggered. If ZBTC holds above $92,000 for several sessions, consider entering long positions in tranches with a target range of $104,000.

Recently, Bitcoin has been oscillating repeatedly near multiple crucial support and resistance levels. A breakdown below the $89,000 (or even $86,000) level could trigger billions of dollars in long liquidations, accelerating a sharp downside move. Conversely, a strong breakout of the $95,000–$98,000 resistance zone would put large-scale short positions under pressure to close, potentially triggering a chain reaction of short squeezes. As an asset highly correlated to BTC, ZBTC’s price volatility will be notably amplified around these thresholds and may intensify short-term emotional one-sided moves.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $89,266, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.396 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $98,140, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.245 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $89,266, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.396 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,724, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.309 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,466, the total short position liquidation on major CEX will reach $1.013 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,724, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.309 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,170, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.229 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,088, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.225 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,170, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.229 billion.

Currently, the vast majority of Bitcoin’s short-term holders are in a state of unrealized losses, which limits selling pressure and provides important support during pullbacks, dampening downside momentum. However, once prices approach the $100,000 level, these holders will reach their break-even point and may quickly turn into sellers, amplifying downward pressure. If prices can continuously close above their average cost basis, it can be considered a bullish reversal signal, but before this is achieved, vigilance for sudden waves of selling is still needed.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

Recently, large straddle options strategies indicate that traders are preparing for substantial volatility in Bitcoin over the coming months. Investors have been net buyers of a significant amount of high-strike call options, while simultaneously adding an equal amount of low-strike put options, reflecting market expectations for two-way opportunities if the price surges to $120,000 or drops to $80,000. Meanwhile, the overall options market sentiment leans slightly bullish, suggesting a somewhat higher probability of an upside breakout in the short to medium term.

A trader on Deribit has invested approximately $2.36 million in a "straddle" options strategy on Bitcoin, purchasing 660 call options at a $120,000 strike price for about $860,000 and 660 put options at an $80,000 strike price for about $1.5 million. Both sets expire on March 27, 2026, indicating the trader expects significant BTC price volatility by the end of March, with potential upward movement of $28,000 or downward movement of $12,000.

Data: A trader invested $2.36M to buy 660 BTC, 120K call options, and 80K put options.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

From the distribution of on-chain positions, there is a continuously rising concentration of accumulated Bitcoin chips around the $87,000 area, and recent price actions have seen repeated retests and rebounds at this level, confirming its robust support. In addition, as price concentration slightly declines while gradually moving upward, this reflects longer-term holders dispersing their positions and continuous buying interest entering the market. Overall, as long as the $87,000 level is not lost, the price is more likely to continue consolidating and attacking within the $92,000–$104,000 range.

On January 4, analyst Murphy noted that BTC's chip concentration within 5% of the January 1 price dropped from 14.9% to 14.5% by January 3, while BTC's price slowly rose. Historical data suggests that a decline in concentration amid rising prices indicates continued price increase. Significant BTC accumulation at $87,000 supports a range of $92,000-$104,000. Technical signals suggest a rebound is more likely than a false breakout unless BTC falls below $87,000.

Analysis: BTC chip concentration decreases, chip structure support is effective, rebound probability is higher than a false breakout followed by further decline.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

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