The current BETA is driven by favorable macro policies and a rebound in market risk appetite, with bullish momentum expected to continue in the short term; upward movement may target the previous high resistance range. However, caution is advised regarding short-term volatility caused by early-year tax loss trading. In the medium to long term, market liquidity is markedly diverged, with funds concentrated in a few themes and overall activity remaining low. It is recommended to watch BETA protocol governance and actual application rollout, align with macro hedging needs, prioritize core liquid assets, avoid overly aggressive buying, and adopt a structural allocation strategy to hedge against future liquidity tightening and sentiment volatility risks.

Recently, overall sentiment in Asian markets has improved, driven by policies and geopolitical news, with bullish confidence gradually recovering. U.S. actions toward Venezuela and expectations for cryptocurrency legislation have fueled price increases in Bitcoin and Ethereum. In options markets, there is a rise in call positions and straddle strategies, reflecting participants' optimism for continued volatility. Against this backdrop, short-term sentiment for BETA is likely to be supported as risk appetite in broader markets improves, and bullish momentum may persist; however, short-term pullbacks caused by early-year tax loss trading must be watched. In the long run, ongoing policy tailwinds require actual legislative outcomes to confirm their stability.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Liquidity distribution on decentralized prediction platforms shows that the short-term crypto market remains in a state of low activity, with most transaction volume concentrated in a select few small contracts and funds only flowing into a very limited number of themed contracts. Low trading frequency and limited liquidity mean BETA may struggle to achieve sustained breakthroughs outside of major news events. In contrast, long-term markets themed around macro politics and economics are attracting more capital allocation. For medium- and long-term investors, attention should be paid to the progress in protocol governance and the realization of application scenarios, and strategies should be aligned with macro hedging needs to cope with potential liquidity tightening and sentiment swings.

Beta

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Institutions: The stronger-than-expected rebound in March non-farm payrolls demonstrates the resilience of the US labor market, with inflation currently being the core variable in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

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