Driven by the recovery of risk appetite and expectations of Federal Reserve easing, the BIST benefits from global capital rotation and is expected to receive incremental allocation in the medium to long term. In the short term, market volatility is narrowing, technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish, and there is still rebound potential. It is crucial to track capital inflow and changes in market volume. Recommendation: Pay attention to the key support zones of the BIST index at present; gradually lay out positions as long as it holds above 5200 points. In the medium to long term, increase allocation on pullbacks. Beware of potential tightening of global liquidity conditions.

Recently, volatility in the digital asset market has narrowed significantly, while overall leverage in derivatives positions has increased. This indicates that short-term funds are observing and seeking direction. If overall market sentiment further improves, BIST may see a breakthrough after a period of consolidation with reduced trading volume. Currently, the RSI and stochastic indicators are in a neutral to slightly optimistic zone, and short-term prices still have potential to continue rebounding. Special attention should be paid to trading volume and net capital inflows to determine whether bullish or bearish forces may further expand.

The US stock market continues to strengthen, with the S&P 500 approaching historic highs, and the ongoing extension of market risk appetite. Should the Federal Reserve's policy turn substantially more accommodative, the global liquidity environment will further improve, injecting new demand for risk asset purchases into the market. Against this backdrop, as a potential beneficiary, BIST may gain incremental medium- to long-term capital allocation opportunities through cross-market capital rotation. However, it is necessary to be alert to the adjustment pressures that may arise from shifts in global macro policy and marginal changes in liquidity.

Bistroo

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"Federal Reserve Mouthpiece": Low Job Growth May Become the New Normal but Is Especially Vulnerable in the Context of War

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Institutions: The stronger-than-expected rebound in March non-farm payrolls demonstrates the resilience of the US labor market, with inflation currently being the core variable in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

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