HEHE currently benefits from a recovery in market risk appetite and the small/mid-cap premium effect, possessing potential for a stage-driven rally. In the short term, it is advisable to combine momentum and trading volume signals to time swings, avoid chasing highs, and beware of sharp pullbacks triggered by profit-taking. For the medium term, if the market outlook becomes clearer and maintains a bull market trend, HEHE is expected to join the main upward wave. It is also important to monitor large on-chain positions and derivatives market depth, and strictly control one-way liquidity risk. Overall, it is recommended to combine trend confirmation and enter on dips within a reasonable range (referencing the ±10% volatility band), strictly setting stop-losses and focusing on position flexibility and risk management.

Recently, on-chain risk appetite indicators and derivatives funding rates have shown signs of recovery, indicating that the overall crypto market sentiment is gradually stabilizing after a period of malaise. As a small/mid-cap asset, HEHE is often more affected by short-term capital flows. In the rebound phase following a sentiment bottom, short-term speculative funds are likely to seek higher volatility premiums from HEHE's small market cap features; however, caution is warranted regarding profit-taking risks that can follow a general rally.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Leading investment institutions reiterate the trend investing principle of 'buy in a bull market, sell in a bear market,' and emphasize that it is impossible to perfectly time market tops and bottoms. From a medium- to long-term value perspective, if HEHE can maintain community activity and protocol implementation during a bull cycle, it will be more likely to continuously attract capital. In the short term, however, momentum indicators and large trade volumes should be considered to avoid buying at highs and being forced out by reversals. Overall, if the broader market confirms a bull trend, HEHE is expected to be a prime candidate for small/mid-caps riding the primary upward wave.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

Recently, a major long position holder in a mainstream project has been incurring continuous funding costs due to a significant gap between their average entry price and the current price. This case reminds us that when large holders take all-or-nothing positions before major exchange listings or significant events, their concentrated exposure may amplify drawdown risk. If a similar concentration of positions occurs in HEHE, any profit-taking or abrupt market sentiment shifts could intensify short-term price swings, making it essential to monitor large on-chain holders’ cost basis and funding rate data.

Since January 2, HYPE has gained over 13%, reaching a high of $27.4. The largest long whale on-chain, holding about $36.44 million with an average price of $38.6, still faces a $17 million unrealized loss, down from $20 million. This whale, suspected of insider trading before HYPE's Robinhood listing, has incurred over $1 million in funding fee losses over two months.

HYPE has recently seen a significant increase, but the largest on-chain HYPE long position is still stuck with an unrealized loss of 17 million due to an average cost of $38.

Derivatives market data show that short-term (within 24 hours) contract trading volumes account for an extremely low proportion, with liquidity concentrated in only a few popular themes. If crypto derivatives face similar short-term illiquidity, this will increase slippage costs and amplify speculative risk. HEHE's derivatives market development remains at an early stage, with liquidity likely to be more dispersed. Investors are advised to consider the depth of mainstream contracts and spot order books within the sector when formulating their positioning, and be wary of irrational price amplification due to inadequate liquidity.

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Crypto Market Remains Range-Bound; US Jobs Report Exceeds Expectations

Institutions: The stronger-than-expected rebound in March non-farm payrolls demonstrates the resilience of the US labor market, with inflation currently being the core variable in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Huatai Securities: March Nonfarm Payroll Data Reflects Resilience of the US Job Market, Inflation Becomes the Core Variable in Fed Policy

Crypto traders fade 2026 Fed cuts as U.S. unemployment dips, but risk assets hold bid

The IMF calls on the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates.

The Federal Reserve expects to cut interest rates twice this year to support the labor market.

CICC: Investment demand and prices for gold may both have room for upward correction.

Stronger, broader hiring could ease Fed job market worries

Fed's Daly: The Federal Reserve should focus on the employment rate rather than employment data.

US military activity in Iran drives prediction market surge for troop presence

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