General Assessment: P2PS is currently in a balanced state between bulls and bears, with limited short-term volatility. Liquidity stratification and structural transformation are keys to breaking the deadlock in the future. Data shows that short-term trading remains dispersed, while long-term themes are more active. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in trading volume and seize key breakout points (focus on mainstream trading ranges and important support levels), with a main focus on allocating to medium- and long-term event-driven markets, building a liquidity moat in collaboration with mainstream market makers. In the medium to long term, if the platform can take the lead in upgrading from a binary options model to perpetual contracts, it will provide substantial support for improving capital efficiency and protocol market competitiveness. Operationally, it is advised to participate following clear signs of liquidity breakthroughs and structural transformation, strictly controlling drawdowns with stop-losses.

Latest data shows that the crypto market is showing signs of stabilization, with sentiment shifting from extremely cautious to neutral-to-optimistic. Although some assets have not yet seen sustained volume breakouts, trading activity and volume are gradually recovering, and short-term competition between buyers and sellers is becoming more balanced. For P2PS, the current stage is marked by roughly equal strength between bulls and bears, making extreme short-term trends unlikely. Investors are advised to monitor subsequent sustained increases in trading volume; if price and volatility rise simultaneously, consider entering positions on breakouts or pullbacks at critical inflection points to control downside risk.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

The current prediction market model is stuck in a 'local optimum' predicament: the binary options structure attracts some liquidity in the short term, but low capital efficiency and a lack of funding make scaling difficult. For platforms like P2PS, a timely transition from binary options to perpetual contract models could break liquidity constraints, improve leverage flexibility, and attract a broader range of market makers. In the long run, this structural upgrade would not only enhance the protocol’s capital efficiency but also boost competitiveness across diversified scenarios, providing stronger support for the token's value.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

A detailed analysis of recent market transaction structures reveals that nearly 60% of short-term (within 1 day) contracts have no trades, as overall liquidity is fragmented and concentrated in a few top contracts. In contrast, the trading volume in long-term (over 30 days) markets is about 45 times that of short-term, with geopolitical and macroeconomic themes standing out. To enhance ecosystem vitality, P2PS should focus not only on hot spots but also develop medium- and long-term event- and policy-driven markets, possibly collaborating with mainstream market makers to build a liquidity moat. By clarifying track positioning and introducing stratified incentives, not only can match depth be improved in the short term, but the protocol’s market share can also be solidified in the long run.

P2P solutions foundation

Reminder: Please pay close attention to the following (all times are in Beijing time).

Trump waives Jones Act as oil tops $100 and crypto slumps on inflation fears

Solana price eyes rebound from $90 support as stablecoin supply hits record high

The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury rose by about 10 basis points as investors focused on the outlook for the Federal Reserve's policy rate and international oil prices.

Market Pulls Back; Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady

The Central Bank of Brazil announced a rate cut, taking cautious action amid the outlook affected by the war in Iran.

Fitch: If oil prices rise temporarily, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June increases.

Economists say the market may be misjudging the prospects of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

BOJ set to hold rates steady as Middle East conflict muddles outlook

Breaking: Bitcoin Reacts to Fed's Latest Rate Decision

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