With the innovation of on-chain real estate prediction markets and other scenarios driving the POLIS ecosystem, its utility and TVL are steadily rising, but liquidity polarization is significant, and the institution-led pattern is unlikely to be broken in the short term. Short-term fluctuations are easily driven by trending events, so investors should focus on event expectation management and phased profit-taking. We recommend paying attention to the progress of POLIS perpetual contracts and on-chain intelligence tools in the mid-term, positioning around governance and financial infrastructure, reasonably allocating positions in the $2.80—$3.50 core fluctuation range, and waiting for long-term value revaluation opportunities brought by liquidity and structural reforms.

Recently, a core platform in the ecosystem launched a real estate price prediction market, incorporating a publicly transparent daily house price index and providing POLIS token holders with novel hedging and speculative tools. This innovative application not only expands the protocol’s user base, but also brings traditional, high-threshold asset allocation like real estate into the on-chain trading landscape. It is expected to increase the actual utility of the token and Ecosystem TVL, stimulate greater trading depth and activity through derivatives, and further reinforce POLIS’s governance and collateral utility within the prediction market.

Polymarket announced it will launch a real estate prediction market on January 5, enabling users to bet on housing price trends.

Polymarket will launch a real estate prediction market, allowing users to bet on housing price trends.

Polymarket has launched a new real estate prediction market in partnership with Parcl, using Parcl's daily housing price indices as transparent settlement data. This allows users to trade predictions on monthly, quarterly, or annual home price movements in major U.S. cities via USDC on Polygon. The market provides a novel way to hedge or speculate on real estate price risks without selling physical assets, introducing liquidity and real-time pricing to a traditionally illiquid market.

How to trade real estate in prediction markets

Currently, prediction markets as a whole exhibit a strong two-tier structure: short-term contracts lack liquidity, while macro and political themed contracts maintain high trading volumes and account for nearly half of total transactions. This pattern means only professional teams with mature risk control and market-making capabilities can profit steadily amidst volatility and one-sided trends, leaving retail and new entrants facing high barriers. Although liquidity incentives provide temporary boosts, they haven’t fundamentally changed the concentration of top platforms and tokens. To break internal ecosystem barriers, POLIS needs to focus on supporting secondary market market-making strategies and incentive mechanisms.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

When high-probability contracts concerning major events or popular themes are involved, market sentiment amplifies rapidly, leading to clear surges in market capitalization and trading volume in the short term. For example, a single prediction event saw trading volume exceed $10 million, showing that once an event-driven trend hits key probability expectations, POLIS’s price also sees synchronous amplified volatility. This short-term sentiment is primarily driven by leverage and speculation; without major positive news or sustained trading support, the token tends to return to a volatility range after event settlement. Investors should focus on short- and medium-term position management and profit-taking strategies.

Polymarket market bets on Infinex's public offering reaching over $2 million have risen to a 98% probability. The chances of exceeding $3 million and $5 million are 93% and 78%, respectively. The total trading volume for this event has reached $3.25 million.

Polymarket market bets that the probability of Infinex's public offering total subscription exceeding $2M rises to 98%.

Industry voices are calling for a fundamental overhaul of the existing binary options model by introducing perpetual contract designs to enhance capital efficiency and liquidity depth. Additionally, open and transparent on-chain intelligence tools are increasingly regarded as a core competitive edge, offering market participants a fair playing field. If POLIS can support these two directions, it could not only attract more institutional market makers at the protocol level, but also position the token as a key vehicle for decentralized governance and on-chain intelligence services, thus reinforcing its long-term value support and ecosystem stickiness.

Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, stated that Polymarket is like an open and transparent version of Palantir, providing on-chain intelligence tools accessible to everyone. He highlighted that during Maduro's arrest, on-chain traders detected key signals through Polymarket in advance, rather than learning afterward. He emphasized that while governments also use such tools, Polymarket's public nature truly democratizes information access.

The founder of 1confirmation: Polymarket is the Palantir of the web natives.

1confirmation founder Nick stated that Polymarket is an on-chain intelligence tool accessible and fully transparent to anyone worldwide. Before Maduro's arrest, those monitoring on-chain data had already received warnings. While smart governments also use it, its uniqueness lies in providing a fair competitive environment for everyone.

1confirmation Founder: Polymarket is an on-chain intelligence tool.

Star Atlas DAO

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Trump: US-Iran talks progress as Iran suspends nuclear program

Trump warns of bombing if no Iran deal by April 21 ceasefire expiration

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

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