Bitcoin is currently trading below the short-term holders’ cost basis. Selling pressure remains limited, and price demonstrates resilience, but a breakout above this resistance would signal a shift in market balance. At present, leveraged long positions are concentrated and funding rates have risen, supporting buying pressure but also increasing liquidation risks. The $89,200 level serves as key downside support; a breakdown could trigger approximately $1.87 billion in long liquidations. In the $94,300–$95,650 range, there is pronounced short liquidation pressure amounting to around $2.5 billion. Given large options straddle positions and continued ETF net inflows, the short-term market is likely to remain in a wide trading range. It is recommended to focus on the direction of breakouts from average short-term price levels and the aforementioned liquidation zones, control leverage and position sizes, and stay flexible to manage volatility risks.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading below the average cost basis of short-term holders, placing these investors in a loss position and dampening their motivation to take profits. This results in limited selling pressure during price corrections, thereby maintaining relative price resilience. However, caution is warranted: if the price rises above their average cost basis, it could trigger large-scale short-term holder sell-offs and potentially spark a new round of selling pressure. Whether this cost basis is breached or not will be a crucial indicator for future short-term long/short market shifts.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel noted that the current BTC price rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This loss limits their selling potential, easing downward pressure. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal would be BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

The 8-hour average funding rate has risen from 0.0062% to 0.0085%, indicating that longs are consistently paying fees to shorts to maintain positions, and there is an increased willingness for leveraged long buying. Recently, after testing support at $89,200, the market quickly rebounded to $90,500, accompanied by a further concentration of long positions. While positive funding rates and heightened long leverage support buying, they also set the stage for mass liquidations if key downside support is breached.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, the current 8-hour average funding rate for BTC across the entire network is 0.0085%. Among major exchanges, Binance and OKX both have a funding rate of 0.0087%, while Bybit's rate is 0.0085%.

Data: The current 8-hour average funding rate for the entire BTC network is 0.0085%.

Bitcoin rebounded to around $90,500 after testing a key support near $89,200, marking its third consecutive day of pullback following a peak near $95,000. The decline is attributed to low trading volume and profit-taking. Market leverage is rising, with perpetual contract funding rates positive, indicating traders are using leverage to buy the dip. However, this concentrated long positioning increases the risk of forced liquidations and additional selling pressure if prices fall further.

Analysis: The key support level for Bitcoin is around $89,200, with traders still using leverage to buy the dip.

There is over $2.5 billion in short liquidation risk within the $94,300–$95,650 price range. If the price breaks above this zone, a wave of short covering could be triggered. Meanwhile, between $86,100 and $87,100, about $1.87 billion in long positions face liquidation risk—a breakdown here could prompt accelerated selling. With dense liquidation thresholds on both sides, the current price sits near the upper edge of this range; thus, one should be wary of amplified market moves resulting from these chip distributions.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $95,649, the total short position liquidations on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.532 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $87,099, the total long position liquidations on major CEXs will amount to $1.87 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $95,649, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.532 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $94,311, the total short position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.798 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $86,127, the total long position liquidation on major CEX will amount to $1.834 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $94,311, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.798 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $86,170, the total long position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.229 billion. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $95,088, the total short position liquidation on major CEXs will reach $1.225 billion.

Data: If BTC falls below $86,170, the total long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.229 billion.

A straddle options strategy worth approximately $2.36 million indicates that investors are simultaneously buying $80,000 put and $120,000 call contracts set to expire at the end of March, expecting prices may either rise by $28,000 or fall by $12,000 by then. This setup reflects institutional investors’ anticipation of significant Bitcoin volatility within the next two months. In the short term, prices are expected to remain within a broad trading range.

A trader on Deribit has invested approximately $2.36 million in a "straddle" options strategy on Bitcoin, purchasing 660 call options at a $120,000 strike price for about $860,000 and 660 put options at an $80,000 strike price for about $1.5 million. Both sets expire on March 27, 2026, indicating the trader expects significant BTC price volatility by the end of March, with potential upward movement of $28,000 or downward movement of $12,000.

Data: A trader invested $2.36M to buy 660 BTC, 120K call options, and 80K put options.

Recently, Bitcoin and Ethereum rose over 4% and 6%, respectively, driving total market capitalization up nearly 5%. ETF net inflows reversed the previous two weeks of outflows, totaling nearly $62 million. However, market sentiment remains in the ‘extreme fear’ zone, indicating that while capital is returning, short-term investors are still mainly taking profits with caution on rallies. Mid- and small-cap assets are outperforming large caps, suggesting funds are seeking higher growth opportunities.

Gate Ventures reports a rebound in the cryptocurrency market with BTC and ETH rising 4.13% and 6.61%, respectively, boosting total crypto market cap by 4.82%. ETF inflows improved, reversing two weeks of outflows, with BTC and ETH ETFs gaining approximately $459 million and $161 million. Despite price gains, market sentiment remains in "extreme fear." Mid- and small-cap assets outperformed, led by Memecoins. Ecosystem growth is driven by Ethereum scaling, institutional tokenized finance, and demand for compliant decentralized AI infrastructure. Four funding events raised about $17 million, mainly for data and infrastructure, signaling ongoing long-term development amid cautious short-term sentiment.

Gate Ventures: The cryptocurrency market rebounds, ETF fund inflows signal improvements in market structure.

Bitcoin.ℏ

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The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April has dropped to 93.8%.

Bank of America: Maintains a bearish outlook on the dollar in the medium term.

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HSBC: Maintains expectation that the Federal Reserve will hold steady for the next two years

HSBC: The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the next two years.

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