BLOCK is currently oscillating within a key support area. In the short term, caution is advised regarding downside volatility driven by Bitcoin's correlation and liquidity pressures. However, each pullback also presents opportunities to accumulate at lower prices. In the medium term, BLOCK stands to benefit from rising global risk appetite and increased on-chain activity. Continued capital inflows could see BLOCK challenge resistance above $92,000. A trend-following strategy is recommended, with phased position-building and dynamic profit-taking, focusing on tracking fundamentals and ecosystem data to guard against the risk of a secondary correction following short-term sentiment releases.

Recently, after testing the key support at $89,200, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to $90,500, with market leverage ratios continuing to climb. Bulls intensively added positions on pullbacks, resulting in dense short-term holdings. For BLOCK, which is highly correlated with Bitcoin, there is a short-term risk of passive profit-taking or liquidation. However, each retracement also brings buying opportunities at lower prices. BLOCK is expected to oscillate broadly around the key support area. Pay attention to liquidity shifts to avoid the risk of a secondary dip due to concentrated liquidations.

Bitcoin rebounded to around $90,500 after testing a key support near $89,200, marking its third consecutive day of pullback following a peak near $95,000. The decline is attributed to low trading volume and profit-taking. Market leverage is rising, with perpetual contract funding rates positive, indicating traders are using leverage to buy the dip. However, this concentrated long positioning increases the risk of forced liquidations and additional selling pressure if prices fall further.

Analysis: The key support level for Bitcoin is around $89,200, with traders still using leverage to buy the dip.

Global financial markets are experiencing a rise in risk appetite, with US stocks climbing and blockchain concept stocks broadly rising. Asian markets are also performing impressively. As a niche sector, BLOCK is poised to benefit from the transmission effect of mainstream on-chain assets and industry hotspots. Capital may seek new deployment opportunities amid positive macro expectations and enthusiasm for on-chain mining and DeFi applications. If the crypto market maintains its current upward momentum, BLOCK could challenge previous resistance highs and once again attract incremental capital.

On January 6, US stocks closed higher with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.23% to a new high. The S&P 500 rose 0.64%, and the Nasdaq increased 0.69%. Chevron gained 5.2%, nearing a record high, while Tesla rose 3%. Blockchain-related stocks also saw broad gains, including Circle up 1.59%, MicroStrategy up 4.81%, and Coinbase up 7.77%.

U.S. stock market close: Dow Jones hits a new high, blockchain concept stocks broadly rise.

QCP's market analysis on January 5 highlights a strengthening crypto market in Asia, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surpassing $92,000 and $3,100 respectively, driven by US actions in Venezuela, year-end tax-loss trading, and rising crypto legislation expectations. Speculation about Venezuela holding significant "shadow Bitcoin reserves" and using USDT in oil trades could make it a major sovereign BTC holder. Options data show a bullish shift, with increased call options and straddle strategies indicating short covering and bets on upward volatility.

QCP: Venezuela Situation and Options Funding Resonance Strengthen Bullish Expectations in the Crypto Market

Market analysts generally suggest that the crypto market is improving from the bottom up, and caution is needed against phase corrections triggered by excessive FOMO at the current stage. Over a longer time horizon, heavy holders should adhere to a trend-investing philosophy, focusing on asset fundamentals and on-chain metrics rather than short-term speculation. For BLOCK, positioned as a base protocol or ecosystem token, its mid- to long-term value still depends on ecosystem activity and the speed of application adoption. Investors are advised to use phased position-building and dynamic profit-taking for risk management.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Santiment analysts note that retail investor sentiment on social media has been strong at the start of the year, reflecting a positive mood after the holidays. However, they caution that the market's further rise depends on retail investors maintaining caution and not succumbing to excessive FOMO. A rapid Bitcoin surge to $92,000 could trigger significant FOMO, which historically signals potential market downturns following peaks.

Santiment: Retail sentiment started the year positively; if Bitcoin quickly rises to $92K, it could trigger FOMO.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua reflects on a decade in crypto, emphasizing the importance of improving investment and trading understanding, focusing on trend investing, and ignoring short-term fluctuations. He notes that bears are making a last effort, betting on factors like the four-year cycle and liquidity decline, but these bets are failing and will fuel a short squeeze during the market rise. He urges focus on professional research and continuous learning.

Yi Lihua: Bears are making their final efforts, which will become fuel for the upward movement.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

block AI

CITIC Securities: Inflation Upside Risk Squeezes the Federal Reserve's Room for Rate Cuts

Tonight's CPI Preview: "Iran Premium" Included for the First Time, Traders Increase Hedging Against Inflation Risk

The U.S. economy almost stalled, but inflation still stayed too hot for an easy Fed rescue

Investors in the $31 trillion Treasury market are approaching a closely-watched report on consumer prices by hedging against further losses in government bonds, as a fragile truce between the US and Iran takes hold.

Mexico’s central bank’s decision to cut interest rates last week faced opposition from two of its five board members, who raised concerns about lingering inflationary pressures from the Iran war.

Oil Back at $100, Inflation Rising — Why Crypto’s Next Move Could Be Violent

Bitcoin, XRP Rise While Oil Breaks $100 as Weak GDP Reshapes Market Correlations

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is currently 98.4%.

The US war with Iran has put a potentially irreversible strain on the global trading system, with gold reserves having eclipsed central bank holdings of valuation-adjusted dollar assets for the first time in several decades.

USD: Dual Fed risks and ceasefire volatility – ING

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