Affected by Bitcoin's high-level oscillation and macro risk aversion sentiment, FIGHT shows a clear pro-cyclical fluctuation pattern. There is initial support at $0.0033 in the short term, but strong resistance between $0.0040 and $0.0042 above, and the continuous contraction in trading volume reflects a wait-and-see market sentiment. It is recommended to only pay attention to rebound opportunities in the short term when FIGHT stabilizes or Bitcoin rebounds; beware of sudden sell-offs. In the medium and long term, closely monitor changes in DeFi policies and macro liquidity. Regulatory uncertainty remains the main structural risk. Investors should strictly control their positions and pay attention to industry compliance progress and signals of improving asset liquidity.

Recently, Bitcoin has repeatedly tested the $75,000-$78,000 range, with liquidity and leverage levels remaining high, but the dominance of short positions has led to a discount in perpetual contracts. Under global macro pressure, risk-averse buying has tightened, causing overall turbulence in the crypto market. As a mid- to small-cap asset, FIGHT closely follows Bitcoin's moves. When Bitcoin falls under pressure, market risk appetite decreases, and both the trading volume and price of FIGHT pull back; conversely, if Bitcoin experiences a short-term rebound, it may drive a technical rebound in FIGHT.

Bitcoin recently surpassed $75,000 for the first time in 73 days, facing resistance near $78,000 with $74,000 seen as a critical support level for further gains. Market views diverge: bears cite weak macro liquidity and reliance on short-covering, while bulls highlight strong whale accumulation and potential breakthroughs above key moving averages. The broader market shows mixed signals amid geopolitical developments and fluctuating investor sentiment.

Trading moment: BTC encountered resistance at 78K, and it needs to hold 74K to aim for a breakthrough.

Analyst Murphychen888 highlights that Bitcoin perpetual contract open interest has risen to about 472,000 BTC, indicating increasing market leverage. Despite this, persistent short dominance causes perpetual prices to trade at a discount, with shorts paying high funding fees. The combination of high open interest and sustained negative premiums may trigger short squeezes during rebounds, fueling price rises. The market is currently complex, with shorts under cost pressure and no clear bullish trend, leading to a cycle of event-driven moves, liquidations, and consolidation.

Analyst: High positions coexist with persistent negative fee rates, making short-term market speculation increasingly complex.

On April 24, the crypto market weakened with BTC hovering around $77,800, slowing its rise from $65,000. ETH fell about 0.8%, underperforming BTC. Market pressure stemmed from Japan's March corporate service price index rising 3.1%, exceeding expectations and signaling possible BOJ rate hikes, strengthening the yen and risking global asset sell-offs. Additionally, ongoing Iran conflict disrupted oil transport, pushing WTI crude over $96/barrel, raising inflation concerns and limiting Fed rate cut prospects.

Analysis: BTC's upward momentum is hindered as Japanese inflation data and the Iran conflict trigger market risk aversion.

BTC's upward momentum slowed near $77,800 after rising from $65,000, with ETH also declining about 0.8%. Market pressure stems from Japan's March corporate service price index rising 3.1% YoY, suggesting possible BOJ rate hikes and a stronger yen, which may trigger risk asset sell-offs. Additionally, ongoing Iran conflict disrupts oil transport, pushing WTI crude over 40% higher to $96/barrel, sustaining inflation concerns and limiting Fed rate cut prospects.

Analysis: BTC's upward momentum is hindered as Japanese inflation data and the Iran war trigger market risk aversion sentiment.

From the daily chart, FIGHT started an upward breakout with volume on April 2 and quickly retreated after hitting a peak of $0.00566 on April 13, leaving a clear upper shadow. Since then, trading volume has continued to shrink, and the price has pulled back from the $0.005 level to near $0.0035, having now fallen below the lower boundary of the consolidation range between the April 10 high and the April 5 low. The $0.0033 level is the lower boundary of the previous high-trading zone, providing short-term support, while the $0.0040-$0.0042 zone will be the primary resistance during an initial rebound.

Currently, the cost pressure on short positions in the market is high. For perpetual longs to get short-term respite, a short squeeze is necessary, which may be triggered at key support levels or if Bitcoin rebounds. However, trader sentiment is turning cautious; as oil prices and inflation expectations rise, there may be phased selling pressure on risk assets. In the short term, FIGHT buyers are waiting for clear entry signals. Otherwise, narrow-range oscillation between bulls and bears is more likely.

At the industry level, the DeFi sector still faces security incidents and uncertainty in regulatory policies, and the progress of related legislation introduced during the same period remains unclear, causing significant volatility in investor confidence in mid- and small-cap tokens. If future macro policies turn dovish, a liquidity recovery will benefit FIGHT; conversely, stricter regulation or intensified asset repricing risks will bring structural pressure to its valuation.

FIGHT

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%, while the probability of a rate cut in June is only 4.7%.

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The US Treasury market is focusing on the Federal Reserve meeting, with the probability of a rate cut by the end of the year rising to 40%.

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Netanyahu orders IDF to intensify attacks on Hezbollah, ceasefire in doubt

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Trump evacuated from White House dinner amid US-Iran tensions

Biden highlights US blockade success against Iran, Strait of Hormuz traffic impacted

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