Under the multiple disturbances of macro policy wait-and-see attitude, geopolitical uncertainty, and derivatives deleveraging, FOLKS is expected to continue fluctuating within the 1.15–1.30 range in the short term, with core support at 1.15 and obvious resistance at the upper limit. Shrinking trading volume and negative funding rates reflect insufficient bullish momentum, making a short-term breakout unlikely. It is recommended to build defensive positions around the lower boundary, while keeping an eye on ecosystem expansion and on-chain innovation progress in the medium and long term. Once supporting liquidity and real-world applications are implemented, the medium- to long-term valuation center and allocation cost-effectiveness will significantly improve.

Internal resistance has emerged before the new Fed chairman takes office, making the rate-cut path uncertain and prompting the market to remain highly cautious about the interest rate outlook. Meanwhile, both bulls and bears are waiting for tonight's nonfarm payrolls to confirm the resilience of US employment. From the daily chart, after a bullish surge on February 27 briefly pushed prices above the 1.63 high, FOLKS quickly fell back and entered a sideways consolidation between 1.15–1.30, with trading volume declining from its high, reflecting a strong wait-and-see mood. In the short term, unless there is a clear deviation in key macro data, the price is likely to continue fluctuating within the range while awaiting policy guidance.

Before Jerome Powell officially takes over the Federal Reserve, significant internal resistance has already made the path to interest rate cuts challenging.

Futures Hotspot Tracking

The upcoming non-farm payroll data is highly anticipated and could be the key to breaking the current deadlock. Oil prices have been volatile, disrupting expectations of an interest rate cut. Tonight's non-farm data release is expected to significantly impact market trends.

Middle East tensions have driven Brent close to $90 and WTI above $82. Statements from Trump about allowing oil prices to rise, along with supply shocks, have led to risk aversion spreading to digital assets. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all under pressure, and market risk appetite has decreased. FOLKS is also affected, repeatedly being blocked near 1.30 and finding support at 1.15, forming a double bottom pattern. In the short term, geopolitical and energy risks still exist, so the sector may continue to fluctuate widely.

As the US prepares to enter daylight saving time and awaits the February non-farm payroll report, crude oil prices surge amid Middle East tensions disrupting supply, with Brent nearing $90 and WTI surpassing $82. Meanwhile, gold, silver, and Bitcoin face pressure; Bitcoin tests key support around $69,420 amid mixed market sentiment, with 80% of analysts bullish despite miner sell-offs and cautious options activity. Ethereum remains volatile near $2,000 amid fundamental concerns and institutional interest.

Trading Moment: With non-farm payrolls approaching, crude oil surges, gold, silver, and Bitcoin face pressure, and 80% of analysts are bullish on BTC.

In response to the oil price surge triggered by the Iran conflict, Trump stated, "Let it rise," with no plans to use strategic petroleum reserves. White House officials revealed the Treasury may announce measures as early as Thursday to address rising oil prices, potentially including intervention in the oil futures market.

Crude oil prices surged nearly 30% due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a severe supply shock and hitting Asia-Pacific stock markets hard, with major indices plunging sharply. The energy crisis has prompted G7 and IEA to consider releasing strategic reserves. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains volatile under macroeconomic pressures, with mixed market sentiment amid geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, as institutional investors hedge against potential downturns.

Trading Moment: Crude Oil Soars 30%, Hitting Asia-Pacific Stock Markets Hard, Bitcoin Still Under Macro Control.

Observing the derivatives market, Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rates have remained negative since the end of January, with a significant shrinkage in open interest on the market. While this reduces the risk of systemic liquidation, it also weakens short-term explosive potential. Although there is some institutional spot buying, option implied volatility is rising and sentiment leans bearish, suppressing any further rebound. During FOLKS’s recent rebound phase, trading volume gradually declined, indicating insufficient bullish momentum. In the current low-leverage environment, conditions for across-the-board explosive growth are lacking, making a sharp short-term jump unlikely.

Independent crypto analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates have remained negative since late January, indicating dominant short positions. Open interest in USD-denominated Bitcoin futures has dropped from $47.6 billion in October 2025 to $20.8 billion in March 2026, reflecting significant deleveraging. This reduces the risk of sharp liquidations but also limits potential short squeezes, as less leverage remains in the market despite prevailing bearish sentiment.

Analyst: The current market has significantly reduced leverage, lowering the likelihood of a sharp crash, but at the same time limiting the potential for an upward short squeeze.

Bitcoin fell below $70,000 amid a market split, with institutional spot buyers accumulating Bitcoin while derivatives traders increased short positions. Historically, simultaneous spot accumulation and negative funding rates can trigger a short squeeze, but this is not guaranteed. The recent pullback reflects short-term profit-taking, with some investors cashing out after rebounds. Despite a recent rally, confidence in sustained gains remains low, and derivatives market sentiment stays bearish, even as spot demand persists.

Analysis: Bitcoin surged then pulled back, falling below $70K, as institutional spot buying clashes with derivatives short positions.

Market expectations for volatility this month are rising, with Bitcoin's short-term implied volatility (IV) exceeding 65% and Ethereum's IV surpassing 80%, reaching recent highs. Key upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data includes February CPI, unemployment figures, and January PCE price index. However, the primary market impact stems from U.S. and Israeli military actions affecting oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz. Skew decline indicates growing demand for downside protection.

Analysis shows that market expectations for volatility this month continue to rise, with short-term IV for both Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching recent highs.

Within the TRON ecosystem, USDD supply has grown by more than 50% since the end of last year, significantly improving on-chain liquidity and providing potential funding sources for altcoins. Meanwhile, emerging platforms are integrating real-time event probabilities and news terminals, reshaping how investors access information and price risks, which is accelerating on-chain innovation. If FOLKS can achieve progress in ecosystem partnerships or application innovation, it will have a relative advantage in medium- to long-term allocation, as well as underlying support for token value.

Polymarket has revamped its website, shifting from a traditional market list to a dynamic news platform featuring a carousel of high-interest event cards with real-time data and betting activity. The redesign redefines news by presenting live probability shifts as breaking news, offering a market-driven, real-time news terminal that quantifies global risks and trends. This evolution positions Polymarket as a mainstream news source, challenging traditional media with data-backed insights across politics, sports, and finance.

The Polymarket website has been revamped, redefining news media.

The decentralized stablecoin $USDD saw a 56% increase in circulating supply from $452.23 million in late November 2025 to $728.50 million by early March 2026, peaking at nearly $778 million in January. This growth occurred despite negative market sentiment and reflects increased liquidity and transaction capacity within the TRON ecosystem. After January’s peak, supply stabilized between $720 and $750 million, indicating sustained interest amid declining broader market risk appetite.

USDD’s Dramatic Supply Increase Defies Market Trends

FOLKS

The Federal Reserve will initiate a 90-day consultation period for the Basel III proposal, with Bitcoin facing a 1250% risk weight.

SoSo Macro | Iran's New Leader Vows Revenge, Pledges Hormuz Blockade; Crude Surges

CNN: Senior U.S. government officials did not anticipate Iran would block the Strait of Hormuz.

Wall Street Morning Brief | March 13, 2026

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 99.1%.

Goldman Sachs pushes Fed rate cut projection to September — what next for the crypto market?

Breaking: Trump Calls For Emergency Fed Rate Cut Before Next Week’s FOMC Meeting

The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury rose by 10 basis points, surpassing 3.76%.

How geopolitics and $200 barrels of oil got ‘promoted’ to main driver of Bitcoin price

Today's CME "Fed Watch" data: 99.1% probability that the Fed will hold rates unchanged in March

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