FTT continues its bearish daily trend, breaking below the short-term support at $0.28, with declining volume indicating seller dominance. Heightened macro risk aversion and ongoing legal uncertainties related to the project further dampen confidence. FTT is expected to remain weak in the short term and test the $0.25 region. It is recommended to avoid high-risk operations; unless there is significant improvement in macro conditions or litigation, reducing positions on rallies is advisable.

Since retreating from the $0.4378 high in mid-February, FTT has exhibited a pattern of lower lows and lower highs, breaking below the previous $0.28 level and further declining to $0.2749. The daily moving averages are arranged bearishly. Although there were occasional spikes in trading volume during the decline, overall volume remains subdued, indicating ongoing selling pressure. Short-term risks of further downside persist.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher, boosting traditional safe-haven demand and shifting the overall crypto market tone from risk appetite to caution. Bitcoin and Ethereum's short-term implied volatility has surged, and derivative basis and option skew data show that professional institutions are increasing downside protection. Such macro risk aversion and liquidity tightening are amplifying sell pressure on relatively small-cap tokens like FTT, leading to a bearish short-term sentiment.

As the US prepares to enter daylight saving time and awaits the February non-farm payroll report, crude oil prices surge amid Middle East tensions disrupting supply, with Brent nearing $90 and WTI surpassing $82. Meanwhile, gold, silver, and Bitcoin face pressure; Bitcoin tests key support around $69,420 amid mixed market sentiment, with 80% of analysts bullish despite miner sell-offs and cautious options activity. Ethereum remains volatile near $2,000 amid fundamental concerns and institutional interest.

Trading Moment: With non-farm payrolls approaching, crude oil surges, gold, silver, and Bitcoin face pressure, and 80% of analysts are bullish on BTC.

Market expectations for volatility this month are rising, with Bitcoin's short-term implied volatility (IV) exceeding 65% and Ethereum's IV surpassing 80%, reaching recent highs. Key upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data includes February CPI, unemployment figures, and January PCE price index. However, the primary market impact stems from U.S. and Israeli military actions affecting oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz. Skew decline indicates growing demand for downside protection.

Analysis shows that market expectations for volatility this month continue to rise, with short-term IV for both Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching recent highs.

Crude oil prices surged nearly 30% due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a severe supply shock and hitting Asia-Pacific stock markets hard, with major indices plunging sharply. The energy crisis has prompted G7 and IEA to consider releasing strategic reserves. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains volatile under macroeconomic pressures, with mixed market sentiment amid geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, as institutional investors hedge against potential downturns.

Trading Moment: Crude Oil Soars 30%, Hitting Asia-Pacific Stock Markets Hard, Bitcoin Still Under Macro Control.

The global financial market faces a perilous crossroads amid a perfect storm driven by geopolitical tensions, notably the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz causing a severe oil supply shock and reviving stagflation fears. This has led to a massive sell-off in risk assets and a flight to the US dollar as the sole safe haven. Concurrently, the oil crisis has sparked intense on-chain speculation in crypto markets, while AI advancements fuel a trillion-dollar investment wave despite rising cybersecurity risks. Bitcoin, caught between these macro forces, struggles with its narrative as digital gold, facing extreme volatility and polarized market sentiment. Its future hinges on a prolonged battle between short-term macro traders and long-term ETF investors amid ongoing geopolitical and economic turmoil.

Crypto Market Macro Report: Oil Hurricane, AI Tsunami, and Bitcoin at a Crossroads

Legal proceedings involving key figures closely tied to FTT have received renewed attention. U.S. prosecutors insist that retrial requests lack new evidence and the original verdict should be maintained. This legal stance lowers market expectations for a reversal and further undermines investor confidence. FTT’s long-term valuation is closely linked to the outcome of ongoing litigation, with uncertainty remaining the main risk factor in the short term.

U.S. prosecutors have opposed Sam Bankman-Fried's motion for a retrial, arguing he failed to prove any injustice in his original conviction. Bankman-Fried, founder of FTX, is serving a 25-year sentence after being convicted in 2023 of fraud and conspiracy related to the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange. Prosecutors maintain the conviction and sentence should stand.

Prosecutors Oppose SBF's Request for Retrial, Saying He Failed to Prove Injustice in Conviction

U.S. prosecutors argue that SBF's request for a retrial should be denied as he failed to prove any injustice in his conviction. SBF claimed new witnesses, former FTX executives Daniel Chapsky and Ryan Salame, could overturn fraud allegations. However, prosecutors stated these witnesses were known before trial and could have been compelled to testify, dismissing the claim of new evidence. They also rejected SBF's accusations of political bias by the Biden administration.

U.S. prosecutors say SBF's request for a retrial should be denied because he failed to prove any unfairness in the conviction.

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Markets Consolidate; Geopolitical Tensions Escalate in Middle East

Polymarket "Federal Reserve rate cut" probability dropped 11% in 24 hours, currently at 28%

The probability of Polymarket's "Federal Reserve cutting interest rates before the end of the June FOMC meeting" fell by 11% in 24 hours, and is currently reported at 28%.

Analysis: Bitcoin Outperforms U.S. Stocks Amid Macro Turmoil, Crypto Market May Gradually Emerge from "Extreme Pessimism" Period

Coinbase Institutional: Bitcoin Outperforms US Stocks, Crypto Market May Gradually Emerge from "Extreme Pessimism"

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Canada Loses 83,900 Jobs in February: Macroeconomic Weakness May Pressure Crypto

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