HYPE is currently at the high end of an ascending channel, with clear short-term resistance at $44–46. If it fails to break out with significant volume, there is a risk of retracement to the $38–39 support. Institutional ETF arrangements and continued accumulation by large holders provide liquidity support, but the upcoming large-scale token unlocks may trigger concentrated selling pressure. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) is higher than industry peers, intensifying bubble concerns. Short-term caution is advised; monitor the unlock progress and the $46 breakout. If it pulls back to around $39, consider buying on dips; if it breaks and holds above $46, increased allocation can be considered, but strictly control your position to manage single-point risks.

From the daily chart, HYPE has been moving within an ascending channel between $38–46 since early April, with recent prices fluctuating between $44–45. The 4-hour MACD histogram is approaching the zero line, indicating weakening momentum. Although the price hit new highs, trading volume and overall crypto market inflows did not increase simultaneously. If the channel’s upper bound is not effectively broken and maintained above $46, there is a short-term risk of retracement to the $38–39 support zone.

Hyperliquid ($HYPE) is trading at $43.60, approaching the upper boundary of an ascending channel at $46.22, with momentum slowing as indicated by a 4H MACD histogram near zero. A breakout above $46.22 could target $50 and higher, while failure may lead to a pullback toward support between $38 and $39. The token benefits from strong derivatives activity and buybacks, with key support critical to maintaining the bullish channel structure.

Will Hyperliquid price break $46 or reverse at ascending channel resistance?

Hyperliquid's native token HYPE rebounded 108% from its January low of $21 to retest $45, the highest since October 2025. However, on-chain data shows divergence: spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) is negative, indicating weak aggressive buying despite price gains, and futures CVD remains flat, reflecting cautious trader sentiment. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts a potential 200% rise to $150 by August if Hyperliquid gains centralized exchange market share. Analysts warn of possible volatility if bullish momentum fades.

HYPE has rebounded 108% from this year's low, with on-chain data showing a divergence from the price trend.

Recently, several whales have increased leveraged long positions, and some notable traders continue to buy and hold, resulting in significant unrealized profits. At the same time, major institutions such as Bitwise have filed for a Hyperliquid ETF, signaling heightened expectations for potential large capital inflows. On-chain data shows that new wallets linked to two major centralized exchanges have staked over 1.36 million HYPE tokens, boosting protocol yields and supporting token buybacks. Overall, the continued allocation by core stakeholders provides strong liquidity support.

Renewed bullish momentum in Hyperliquid is driven by significant whale accumulation, including Arthur Hayes purchasing $HYPE tokens, and Bitwise's updated filing for a Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP), signaling potential institutional inflows. The HIP-3 protocol's commodity trading generates record fees, funding token buybacks that strengthen value. Trading around $42 with 12% weekly growth, Hyperliquid benefits from technological adoption, influential backing, and regulatory progress, positioning it as a DeFi leader.

Hyperliquid Bullishness Surges Again — What’s Driving the Renewed Momentum?

Since October last year, the top whale holding a long position in HYPE has seen an $8.4 million profit as HYPE's price surged near $45. The whale initially built a large long position before HYPE's Robinhood listing, holding through price fluctuations and a maximum unrealized loss of nearly $20 million. Currently, the whale holds a $61.6 million 5x leveraged long position at an average price of $38.67, with a 66.5% floating return.

Since going long on HYPE last October, the top 1 whale holding a long position has finally realized a profit of $8.4 million.

Fed Chair nominee Walsh may face challenges securing congressional approval before May 15. "Big Brother" Ma Ji increased BTC and HYPE long positions, now valued over $56.5 million. Bitcoin rallied with U.S. equities, but options markets show downside risk. A Trump advisor stated the U.S. can block Iranian ports indefinitely. A new wallet withdrew $1.62 million in WLFI from a CEX. Bitcoin saw selling pressure after hitting $76,000, with exchange inflows at a cyclical high. The Bless project dumped 300 million BLESS tokens, causing a 55% price drop.

Planet Afternoon News

Machi Big Brother (Huang Licheng) has increased his long positions in BTC and HYPE, with his overall position value now exceeding $56.50 million. His holdings include a 25x-leveraged ETH long position worth $32.255 million, a 40x-leveraged BTC long position worth $15.117 million, and a 10x-leveraged HYPE long position worth $9.104 million, collectively showing a floating profit of nearly $1.9 million.

Machi Big Brother increased his BTC and HYPE long positions, and the current overall position value exceeds $56.50 million.

Two new wallets funded by different centralized exchanges in the past month transferred 1.366 million HYPE tokens (worth $62 million) from HyperEVM to HyperCore and staked the entire amount to the USDT0 x Luganodes validator node, according to Mlm Onchain monitoring on April 16.

Two new wallets transferred 1.366M HYPE from HyperEVM to HyperCore and staked them all.

Amid easing geopolitical tensions and a hawkish Fed policy stance, global risk assets have experienced a phase of rebound, especially stocks in the AI sector regaining strength. The crypto sector has followed suit, with BTC and ETH performing prominently. Institutional allocations to Bitcoin ETFs and large corporations increasing their positions have boosted market risk appetite, which has also positively influenced HYPE’s short-term sentiment.

BitMart Research Weekly highlights easing US-Iran tensions and a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve, driving a rebound in risk assets including crypto. US stocks, especially AI-related sectors, show strong recovery amid geopolitical risks. Inflation data signals potential upward pressure if oil prices stay high. Crypto markets follow US stocks with BTC and ETH leading, while altcoins remain volatile. Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy’s increased BTC holdings indicate long-term confidence.

BitMart Research Institute Weekly Hotspot Analysis: US-Iran Easing Combined with Fed's Hawkish Shift, Crypto Market Follows Rebound to Form a Bottom

The project is about to undergo a large-scale token unlock, which could trigger concentrated selling pressure. Based on comparable platforms and projected future revenues, HYPE’s $40 billion fully diluted valuation already exceeds its major peers, raising questions about sustained incremental buying. Additionally, platform security and team concentration pose idiosyncratic risks, and the continued establishment of hedge positions reflects the market’s cautious stance on short-term corrections. Investors should closely monitor unlock schedules and selling pressure near high-turnover price areas.

Crypto analyst Catrina Wang argues that HYPE, despite being an impressive project, is unlikely to double its current $40 price given its $40 billion FDV. Key concerns include significant token unlock-induced selling pressure, lack of marginal buyers, escalating hacker risks, and critical personnel dependency. She highlights that HYPE's valuation surpasses comparable exchanges and questions its sustainability without substantial new demand, urging caution despite market hype.

Contrarian View: Why HYPE Won't Double in Value?

$HYPE, the native token of the Hyperliquid DeFi platform, has surged 8.8% in 24 hours and 22.55% over a week, outperforming the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap. Hyperliquid leads the decentralized perpetual DEX market with a 73% share and surpasses Coinbase in derivatives volume. Factors driving growth include deflationary token mechanics, institutional interest via Bitwise’s spot ETF, developer attraction, and high liquidity. Upcoming events like US ETF approvals, new transaction fees, platform integrations, and a token unlocking on May 6 may further boost $HYPE’s value.

Why HYPE Is Outpacing the Top 10 Crypto Giants Right Now?

On April 16, a major hedge whale known as the "largest HYPE short" began selling 63,000 HYPE tokens worth about $2.86 million on Hyperliquid using a TWAP strategy. The whale still holds a $25 million, 5x leveraged short position at an average price of $38.93, currently at a $3.54 million loss. Unlike typical hedging strategies, the whale has not reduced the short position, possibly betting on a short-term price rebound to offset losses.

Hedge whale placed timed sell orders for 63K HYPE spot tokens, still holding $25M short positions in contracts.

Hyperliquid

Hyperliquid (HYPE) Hits 60-Day High as Arthur Hayes Announces HIP4

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Bitcoin and Altcoins Soared: A Major Whale Seized the Opportunity and Made a Massive Investment in an Altcoin

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

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Live chart for Hyperliquid to USD conversion. Check out HYPE to USD prices in real time. Convert, buy, sell, and trade Hyperliquid on Bybit-eu.

Hyperliquid Price: HYPE Live Price Today | HYPE Market Cap & Chart Analysis | Bybit-eu

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HYPE price today is 44.63, with a live price change of 2.36 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade HYPE on Bybit-eu.

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