Affected by geopolitical conflicts and soaring oil prices, market risk aversion sentiment dominates capital flows, causing LITKEY to retreat from its late February high, with initial support found in the $0.00727-$0.00755 range in the short term. Due to uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy and mounting liquidity pressures, LITKEY’s risk premium has risen significantly, and its trend now relies heavily on external macro catalysts. In terms of trading, it is suggested to watch for short-term rebound signals above $0.00850; caution is advised unless an effective breakthrough occurs. For medium- to long-term strategies, LITKEY needs to accelerate ecosystem development and compliance processes to enhance its allocation value and mitigate macro shocks amid market stratification trends.

Recent Middle East conflicts have led to a sharp rise in oil prices, heating up market risk aversion and putting pressure on equities and most risk assets. LITKEY’s performance is highly correlated with overall risk appetite. Since February 24th, it has been in a sustained decline, and although signs of stabilization appeared after hitting an intraday low of $0.00870 on March 4th, it remains in a volatile downward channel overall. During this period, market concerns about oil supply and surging demand for safe havens prompted investors to shift funds from small-cap tokens to more liquid safe-haven or mainstream assets, resulting in collective selling pressure.

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have triggered a surge in safe-haven demand, with gold and silver prices soaring and oil prices spiking due to supply fears. Despite market turmoil, over 60% of analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin, viewing it as a resilient "borderless hard asset" amid inflation and fiat currency concerns. Bitcoin showed a V-shaped recovery after initial drops, while Ethereum faces challenges with declining activity but retains strong institutional support.

Trading Moment: Geopolitical Conflicts Ignite Safe-Haven Sentiment, Over 60% of Analysts Bullish on Bitcoin

If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for an extended period, the global economy may face a "certain recession." Experts warn that triple-digit oil prices could be just the tip of the iceberg of global concerns.

Futures Hotspot Tracking

Crude oil prices surged nearly 30% due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a severe supply shock and hitting Asia-Pacific stock markets hard, with major indices plunging sharply. The energy crisis has prompted G7 and IEA to consider releasing strategic reserves. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains volatile under macroeconomic pressures, with mixed market sentiment amid geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, as institutional investors hedge against potential downturns.

Trading Moment: Crude Oil Soars 30%, Hitting Asia-Pacific Stock Markets Hard, Bitcoin Still Under Macro Control.

While the Fed’s rate-cut path remains unclear, internal resistance and nonfarm payroll data are crucial, leading to greater market volatility regarding interest rate expectations. Dramatic oil price swings further complicate monetary policy decisions, driving up risk premiums for risk assets. From March 6th to March 8th, LITKEY fell consecutively from $0.00816 to $0.00747, reflecting investors’ preference to avoid small and mid-cap token risks amid heightened uncertainty. Only after key macro data is released is there a short-term sentiment recovery.

Before Jerome Powell officially takes over the Federal Reserve, significant internal resistance has already made the path to interest rate cuts challenging.

The upcoming non-farm payroll data is highly anticipated and could be the key to breaking the current deadlock. Oil prices have been volatile, disrupting expectations of an interest rate cut. Tonight's non-farm data release is expected to significantly impact market trends.

On the daily chart, LITKEY began a clear downtrend from its mid-February high of $0.0105, breaking below the psychological $0.0090 level and probing down to the $0.00727 area after a succession of moderate-to-large bearish candles. This area has seen buying support on three occasions. On March 9th, it formed a bullish candlestick with volume, closing at $0.00794, indicating some relief from selling pressure. If trading volume continues to increase and the price holds above the $0.00850 resistance zone, there could be further short-term rebound potential; otherwise, attention should remain on the strength of support in the $0.00727-$0.00755 range.

Against a backdrop of global macroeconomic turmoil, Bitcoin—with its 'cross-border hard asset' attributes—and Ethereum, which enjoys institutional endorsement, are attracting more substantial capital inflows. In comparison, small-cap tokens lack scale effects and deep liquidity, and thus are vulnerable when risk appetite wanes. For LITKEY to gain a firm foothold in the medium to long term, it must strengthen its use cases and ecosystem development, accelerate compliance, and deliver real-world applications to win over investors seeking differentiated value in asset allocation.

Bitcoin resumes its decline while soaring oil prices trigger a risk-off wave. This week's macro outlook focuses on energy trends as inflation data takes a backseat. Etherealize's CEO claims Ethereum is the world's most secure and decentralized settlement layer. Mujtaba, son of Khamenei, is elected Iran's new Supreme Leader. WLFI governance staking proposal voting shows 99.31% support. Key discussions include stablecoins' true opportunity in serving merchants outside traditional card systems and Ethereum's significant Glamsterdam upgrade planned for early 2024.

Key market information gap on March 9, must see! | Alpha Morning Report

Lit Protocol

Trump increases pressure on Fed Chair Powell to cut rates ‘right now’

Morning news summary.

Australia's central bank raises rates again in knife-edge decision

"Federal Reserve Mouthpiece": The Fed is inclined to remain silent this week, with recent shocks acting as two-way factors.

The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, but Morgan Stanley insists that rate cuts will occur in June and September.

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged is as high as 99.1%.

Oil, SOFR and a $10m trade just rewrote your crypto macro

Trump urges Powell to convene a special Federal Reserve meeting, calling for an "immediate" rate cut.

Ray Dalio: Control of the Strait of Hormuz will determine the outcome of the Iran war

FOMC Meeting Tomorrow: Fed Rate Cut Hopes Fade Amid US-Iran Conflicts

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