Currently, MOSHI benefits from a recovery in market risk appetite and capital rotation, with short-term trading volume expected to improve. However, limited by stratified liquidity in prediction markets and elevated market-making costs, the depth of its ecosystem is unlikely to increase rapidly. We recommend monitoring whether MOSHI can be the first to launch perpetual contract products. If achieved, this could break its liquidity bottleneck and attract institutional market makers, unlocking a 20-30% long-term upside in market capitalization. If it remains with the traditional order book model, the token's value may be range-bound; thus, we advise cautious allocation at high levels and closely tracking product iteration progress.

Recently, Bitcoin's sustained high-level performance has led to an overall market sentiment rebound, with funds flowing out from highly volatile meme coins and secondary speculative varieties and into blockchain projects with practical use cases. As the core token of the prediction market ecosystem, MOSHI stands to benefit from this round of capital reallocating from inefficient assets to utility-driven ones. Against the backdrop of surging interest in thematic assets such as AI and DeFi, MOSHI may experience a marginal increase in short-term trading volume, with overall sentiment remaining positive.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

On January 6, with Bitcoin holding above $93,000, the crypto market saw funds shift from Meme coins to tokens with practical applications, notably AI-themed tokens. Functional indices like DeFi and metaverse rose over 4%, while Meme coin indices remained flat or declined. Render Network surged about 20%, and other AI tokens gained over 6%. This trend aligns with optimism in AI and tech stocks, though geopolitical risks and US employment data may impact sentiment. Continued Bitcoin ETF inflows are crucial for further gains.

Analysis: The crypto market's rebound momentum strengthens, with AI concept tokens outperforming Meme coins.

Prediction markets have long adopted an order book model, which is prone to jumpy price movements driven by discrete events and internal information, making position management and liquidity scheduling difficult. Industry data show that most short-term contracts struggle to maintain active trading, with only a few core contracts contributing the majority of volume. In this context, MOSHI's ecosystem faces insufficient market depth, rising market-making costs, and increased position risk, creating high barriers for new market makers and retail traders. Short-term liquidity distribution is unlikely to improve significantly.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Industry experts are calling for the introduction of perpetual contract designs on the foundation of binary options to break current liquidity bottlenecks and capital efficiency limitations, thus creating a truly universal and continuously active prediction market. For MOSHI, advancing towards perpetual contracts at the product level would help attract more professional market makers and hedging institutions, enhancing platform liquidity and leverage configuration efficiency. In the long run, this could reshape token value and expand application scenarios. Failure to achieve such structural upgrades may leave MOSHI trapped in the current 'local optimum' predicament.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

Moshi

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Analysis: The non-farm payroll data still shows obvious fluctuations, and the threshold for the Federal Reserve to adjust its policy remains quite high.

Strategist: The latest non-farm payroll data presents a complex situation for the Federal Reserve.

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