The current POS token market is at an initial sentiment inflection point, with a structural uptrend yet to be established. Short-term price fluctuations are narrowing with limited trading volume; key resistance levels (suggested focus on areas 20% above recent highs) must be broken out with volume to confirm the trend, otherwise a retracement to previous support levels is likely. Liquidity differentiation is significant, mainstream assets have low daily trading volumes, short-term speculative risks are high, and are susceptible to manipulation by large holders. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines, closely monitor changes in price-volume relations, prioritize assets with solid fundamentals and cross-cycle hedging attributes, and implement diversified risk management based on policy and macro events. In the short term, defensive strategies should be prioritized; in the long term, focus should be on cross-market arbitrage and structural adjustment opportunities.

Latest on-chain data and sentiment monitoring indicate initial optimistic signals in the market, but an effective trend confirmation has yet to materialize. Early trading shows price fluctuations narrowing, with no breakout above previous highs, and although trading volume has increased, it remains limited. Both bulls and bears display strong wait-and-see attitudes in the short term; close attention should be paid to whether key resistance levels are breached with volume and can sustain, otherwise a retest of support levels may occur. Overall, the current stage is more of sentiment-driven speculation rather than the start of a structural upward trend, requiring further follow-up data to validate.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Liquidity differentiation in the market is evident, with the average daily trading volume of short-term crypto assets only in the tens of thousands range, far lower than other derivative categories. Liquidity is concentrated among a few assets. POS tokens face challenges including slippage and insufficient order book depth, restricting short-term upward potential and leaving them vulnerable to manipulation by large holders. Meanwhile, demand for long-term value discovery and macro hedging is rising, and investors may use policy-based or political hedging tools to balance portfolio risks. Overall, the liquidity dilemma is unlikely to improve in the short term; focus should be placed on long-cycle fundamentals and cross-market arbitrage opportunities.

Poseidon

Crypto braces for volatility as Warsh hearing nears and rate cut odds slide

Economist: US March CPI monthly rate may surge 1%, Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year.

Economists predict that the US CPI will increase by 1% month-over-month in March, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Slepne: The European Central Bank will discuss either raising interest rates or keeping them unchanged.

Economist: US March CPI monthly rate may surge 1%, the Fed may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year

Trump’s statement boosts odds of Iranian regime falling by June 30 to 14%

US forces’ entry into Iran by April 30 market jumps to 86% amid clashes

Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 86.5% after F-15E recovery

US-Europe alliance strains over Iran conflict as ceasefire odds plummet

US considers seizing strategic islands near Iran, ceasefire odds plummet

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