Driven by the Middle East ceasefire and a rebound in risk appetite, SLP achieved a volume and price breakout, effectively surpassing the 0.00068 USDT resistance level intra-day, confirming a bullish structure. Current capital flows and Bitcoin's range-bound movement indicate short-term sentiment dominance. If macro funds turn cautious or market differentiation intensifies, SLP may face pullback pressure. Strategically, it is recommended to focus on the previous high resistance at 0.00094 USDT and retracement support at 0.00068 USDT, combine phased allocation with dynamic take-profit, and strictly control overall risk exposure.

In mid-April, progress on the Middle East ceasefire and easing nuclear negotiations drove down oil prices, releasing market risk appetite. As geopolitical risks subsided, the technology sector and Nasdaq rose consecutively, leading to a collective recovery in crypto assets driven by risk sentiment—laying the emotional foundation for the current bullish momentum.

The Middle East ceasefire and US-Iran nuclear talks progress have eased geopolitical risks, pressuring oil prices and boosting global risk assets. The Nasdaq set a record 12-day winning streak, with tech and AI sectors attracting capital. Bitcoin rebounded above $74,000 amid steady ETF flows and balanced leverage liquidations. However, Democratic opposition delays Fed nominee Wash's hearing, increasing leadership uncertainty and market volatility risks.

Bitget UEX Daily Report | Hopes for Middle East Peace Rise, Nasdaq Hits Record 12 Consecutive Gains, Anthropic Releases New AI Model

Multiple studies show that indicators such as MVRV Z-Score, SOPR, and ETF net inflows are highly valuable for determining market direction at the current stage. Meanwhile, Bitcoin perpetual contract open interest continues to rise and negative premiums have become normalized, suggesting that short-sellers are under pressure. When long positions are covered or a short squeeze erupts, it may accelerate the rally and further boost market risk appetite.

The author analyzed all Bitcoin prediction methods from 2017 to 2025, finding that celebrity forecasts and classic models like Stock-to-Flow largely failed post-2024. After extensive research, only four indicators proved reliable: MVRV Z-Score, SOPR 28-day average, ETF net capital flow, and macro liquidity. The strategy uses these four signals, requiring three or more to align before acting, focusing on market direction and position rather than price targets.

Bitcoin Trading Strategy Breakdown: Celebrity Predictions and Classic Models All Fail, Leaving Only These Four Indicators

Analyst Murphychen888 highlights that Bitcoin perpetual contract open interest has risen to about 472,000 BTC, indicating increasing market leverage. Despite this, persistent short dominance causes perpetual prices to trade at a discount, with shorts paying high funding fees. The combination of high open interest and sustained negative premiums may trigger short squeezes during rebounds, fueling price rises. The market is currently complex, with shorts under cost pressure and no clear bullish trend, leading to a cycle of event-driven moves, liquidations, and consolidation.

Analyst: High positions coexist with persistent negative fee rates, making short-term market speculation increasingly complex.

On the daily chart, SLP repeatedly consolidated between 0.00058–0.00061 USDT from early April, forming solid support after several downward probes. On April 25, SLP saw a surge in trading volume exceeding 209 million, with the intraday high reaching 0.00094 USDT and closing above 0.0007324 USDT—decisively breaking through the 0.00068 USDT resistance and significantly strengthening short-term bullish momentum.

With Bitcoin under pressure in the 75,000–78,000 USDT range, the market may continue to be event-driven in the short term. While SLP's volume breakout confirms a bullish structure, increased caution in capital flows or intensifying divergence among mainstream assets could lead to volatile pullbacks. It is advised to monitor the previous high at 0.00094 USDT and the retracement support at 0.00068 USDT, balance flexible take-profit with phased allocation, and strictly control position risk.

Bitcoin recently surpassed $75,000 for the first time in 73 days, facing resistance near $78,000 with $74,000 seen as a critical support level for further gains. Market views diverge: bears cite weak macro liquidity and reliance on short-covering, while bulls highlight strong whale accumulation and potential breakthroughs above key moving averages. The broader market shows mixed signals amid geopolitical developments and fluctuating investor sentiment.

Trading moment: BTC encountered resistance at 78K, and it needs to hold 74K to aim for a breakthrough.

Smooth Love Potion

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 100%, while the probability of a rate cut in June is only 4.7%.

FOMC Meeting: US Fed Expected To Hold Rates Till 2027 Despite Kevin Warsh Taking Charge

Senate Committee Sets April 29 Vote To Advance Pro-Crypto Warsh’s Fed Chair Nomination

The global oil shock has the Fed cornered just days before its next meeting — what that means for Bitcoin

The US Treasury market is focusing on the Federal Reserve meeting, with the probability of a rate cut by the end of the year rising to 40%.

One Week Preview | The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; MegaETH token TGE will take place on April 30.

Netanyahu orders IDF to intensify attacks on Hezbollah, ceasefire in doubt

Trump halts US-Iran peace talks, April 30 deal market plummets

Trump evacuated from White House dinner amid US-Iran tensions

Biden highlights US blockade success against Iran, Strait of Hormuz traffic impacted

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