SWFTC is currently driven by a short-term liquidity rebound, presenting opportunities for a staged rally. Focus on the key resistance around 0.016 and corresponding trading volume. If several consecutive days of increased volume spur a rebound, bullish sentiment is likely to strengthen. However, the macro fundamentals remain under pressure, with insufficient long-term capital inflows and trading activity, indicating that the bearish market trend persists and a pullback risk remains after the rebound. Strategically, investors are advised to maintain position restraint, only considering additional holdings after clear signs of capital inflow and a breakthrough with volume, to guard against a rapid reversal caused by weak upward momentum.

Recently, market liquidity has improved, providing phase-driven momentum for a bottom rebound. From a daily chart perspective, if this is accompanied by increasing trading volume, SWFTC is expected to experience a short-term bounce after testing the bottom. Investors should focus on the breakout of several key resistance levels; if there is a consecutive multi-day rally with strong volume, short-term bullish sentiment will be effectively confirmed.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

Although short-term rebound expectations have risen, overall trading volume and transaction fee data suggest the long-term market trend remains weak. Depressed fee revenues reflect a lack of capital entry willingness, making it difficult for SWFTC to break away from the macro bear atmosphere of the broader market. Without sustained capital stimulus, the risk of a rapid pullback after a volume-driven rally remains high, warranting caution against quick reversals following rebounds.

The broader market has recently shown some marginal signs of improvement, but current sample data is still insufficient to fully confirm a trend reversal. SWFTC may see a tug-of-war between bulls and bears near key moving averages; the current bounce alone is not enough to establish a medium-term bottom. It's recommended to closely watch changes in capital flows and holding costs, and in the absence of clear volume support, maintain a wait-and-see approach or explore small positions rather than aggressive entry.

SWFTCOIN

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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