TOSHI faces dual pressures from pessimistic sentiment toward Bitcoin and tightening liquidity, lacking effective buying support. The current price has fallen more than 20% from its peak and continues to run below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with lackluster trading volume. In the short term, TOSHI may remain weakly oscillating within the 0.00017-0.00018 range. It is recommended to remain cautious and only consider increasing allocation after trading volume expands or the price breaks through the short-term moving averages. In the medium to long term, it is necessary to dynamically monitor the positive impact of global regulatory progress and increased institutional participation on liquidity and valuation structure.

Recently, the Bitcoin derivatives market is dominated by bears, with bullish momentum continually weakened. Coupled with global liquidity pressure, the overall market remains cautious. As a high-risk asset, small-cap tokens tend to follow Bitcoin sentiment, experiencing significant declines; short-term funds prefer to stay on the sidelines, making it difficult to form effective buying support.

Bitcoin remains in a narrow trading range amid constrained macro liquidity and unclear price direction. Multiple pressures from energy prices, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks compress market liquidity, leading to a cautious stance. Technical support lies between $67,000-$69,000, with resistance near $72,000. Without increased demand, the market is expected to stay range-bound, awaiting a breakout influenced by macroeconomic data, policy signals, and geopolitical developments.

Analysis: Bitcoin is stuck in a narrow range, macro liquidity is constrained, and the market is waiting for a directional breakout.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr reports that Bitcoin's derivatives market is dominated by short positions, with the 30-day moving average of the Bitcoin position index falling from +3.0 to -3.1 since mid-March, reflecting growing short accumulation and a weakening market structure. Liquidation oscillation has risen to 18.6%, indicating ongoing forced liquidations of long positions. The market shows no signs of a bullish reversal, suggesting continued downside risk and advising risk avoidance.

Analyst: Bitcoin derivatives market dominated by shorts, bulls continue to face liquidation pressure.

The daily chart shows a retreat of over 20% from the monthly peak, with the latest closing price staying below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. Short-term moving averages form a death cross, accompanied by a clear shrinking in trading volume, indicating no signs of a bullish takeover. Without expanded trading volume or signals of the price reclaiming the moving averages, the short term may continue to oscillate within the 0.00017-0.00018 range or slightly test support downward.

Major global economies are accelerating the inclusion of digital assets into regulatory frameworks and advancing infrastructure upgrades. Increased participation by traditional financial institutions and compliant asset managers will bring a new round of structural opportunities for asset pricing and liquidity in the medium to long term. However, before policies are implemented, small-cap and highly volatile projects still face high allocation thresholds, requiring continuous attention to regulatory trends and industry innovation for their impact on capital inflows and valuation reshaping over the mid-to-long term.

PANews weekly review covers key topics including Trump's hopes to end the Iran war quickly amid global energy market impacts, Russia's move to regulate cryptocurrencies as state-selected assets, and Fannie Mae accepting Bitcoin for mortgages. It highlights AI industry shifts with OpenAI shutting down Sora, debates on AI power centralization, and major blockchain infrastructure upgrades in Wall Street. The report also discusses crypto market challenges like Circle's stock plunge, Binance's market maker crackdown, and community backlash over Backpack's token launch.

A Week in Review | Trump hopes to end the war quickly, but Backpack's token launch has left the community disheartened.

Tiger Research's report analyzes the decline of retail cryptocurrency investors despite rapid market growth, focusing on nine major Asian markets. It identifies five core barriers—regulatory uncertainty, security risks, tax burdens, usability challenges, and social perception—that hinder new user adoption. The report details diverse regulatory and market conditions across Northeast and Southeast Asia, examines exchange strategies for user acquisition, and highlights the need for localized education, transparency, and trust-building before the next crypto bull market.

Tiger Research: Analysis of the Current Status of Retail Investors in Nine Major Asian Markets

Toshi

Market Holds Steady; US Jobs Data Exceeds Expectations

Crypto Market Remains Range-Bound; US Jobs Report Exceeds Expectations

Institutions: The stronger-than-expected rebound in March non-farm payrolls demonstrates the resilience of the US labor market, with inflation currently being the core variable in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Huatai Securities: March Nonfarm Payroll Data Reflects Resilience of the US Job Market, Inflation Becomes the Core Variable in Fed Policy

Crypto traders fade 2026 Fed cuts as U.S. unemployment dips, but risk assets hold bid

The IMF calls on the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates.

The Federal Reserve expects to cut interest rates twice this year to support the labor market.

CICC: Investment demand and prices for gold may both have room for upward correction.

Stronger, broader hiring could ease Fed job market worries

Fed's Daly: The Federal Reserve should focus on the employment rate rather than employment data.

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