Affected by differences in macro monetary policy and oil price shocks, VELO has recently oscillated in the 0.00344-0.00353 range, with effective support and increasingly cautious market sentiment. On-chain stablecoin liquidity continues to strengthen, providing a price floor and eliminating extreme selling pressure in the short term. In the medium to long term, the activity of the ecosystem is driven by innovative on-chain financial tools and diversified consensus mechanisms, which helps unlock upward price momentum. It is recommended to watch the 0.00344 support and signals of breakthrough above 0.00353, flexibly adjust positions by combining on-chain liquidity and application rollout pace, and prioritize risk control and value exploration.

Recently, internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve over the interest rate cut path have cooled market expectations for monetary easing, leading to a short-term pullback in risk appetite. From the daily chart, VELO's price hovered near 0.00349 on March 4, then retreated slightly to the 0.00345 level on March 5, but did not break below the March 2 low, indicating that bears failed to maintain their attack. Trading volume expanded during the pullback, reflecting that both bulls and bears are mainly observing at key levels, with short-term sentiment skewed toward caution.

Before Jerome Powell officially takes over the Federal Reserve, significant internal resistance has already made the path to interest rate cuts challenging.

Futures Hotspot Tracking

The upcoming non-farm payroll data is highly anticipated and could be the key to breaking the current deadlock. Oil prices have been volatile, disrupting expectations of an interest rate cut. Tonight's non-farm data release is expected to significantly impact market trends.

Driven by surging oil prices due to Middle East conflicts, global markets face increased demand for safe-haven assets, weighing on risk assets. For VELO, the price rapidly dropped from a high of 0.00353 to 0.00345 on March 6, with a daily candlestick forming a doji with both upper and lower shadows, indicating clear long-short divergence. Subsequently, the price steadily rebounded to around 0.00351, validating the effectiveness of support in the 0.00344-0.00345 region. Although short-term volume fluctuated, there was no extreme sell-off, suggesting the market is still digesting external shocks.

In response to the oil price surge triggered by the Iran conflict, Trump stated, "Let it rise," with no plans to use strategic petroleum reserves. White House officials revealed the Treasury may announce measures as early as Thursday to address rising oil prices, potentially including intervention in the oil futures market.

Crude oil prices surged nearly 30% due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a severe supply shock and hitting Asia-Pacific stock markets hard, with major indices plunging sharply. The energy crisis has prompted G7 and IEA to consider releasing strategic reserves. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains volatile under macroeconomic pressures, with mixed market sentiment amid geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, as institutional investors hedge against potential downturns.

Trading Moment: Crude Oil Soars 30%, Hitting Asia-Pacific Stock Markets Hard, Bitcoin Still Under Macro Control.

With the significant increase in decentralized stablecoin circulation since the end of last year, on-chain capital strength has grown, and overall liquidity has improved noticeably. Since March, VELO's trading range has steadily narrowed, consolidating around the 0.00349-0.00353 region, indicating that ample liquidity is providing strong price floor support. If on-chain stablecoin supply remains high, it is expected to ease short-term liquidity-driven selling pressure.

The decentralized stablecoin $USDD saw a 56% increase in circulating supply from $452.23 million in late November 2025 to $728.50 million by early March 2026, peaking at nearly $778 million in January. This growth occurred despite negative market sentiment and reflects increased liquidity and transaction capacity within the TRON ecosystem. After January’s peak, supply stabilized between $720 and $750 million, indicating sustained interest amid declining broader market risk appetite.

USDD’s Dramatic Supply Increase Defies Market Trends

The rise of prediction markets and the 'multi-player Internet' concept reflects the trend of innovation in on-chain financial tools and consensus mechanisms. As mainstream institutions pay greater attention to prediction markets and decentralized consensus applications expand, user activity within the ecosystem may continue to increase. Since late February, VELO has steadily rebounded from a low of 0.00324, indicating that long-term upward momentum remains; if emerging applications are rolled out successively, they could provide continued support to the project's value.

Kalshi and Polymarket, two leading prediction markets, are both valued around $20 billion amid rapid growth and competition. Kalshi's 2025 transaction volume surged over 1100%, driven mainly by sports contracts, while Polymarket maintains strength in political and crypto events with steady user growth. Both platforms have formed strategic partnerships with major institutions and media, pushing prediction markets into mainstream financial and information tools.

$20B valuation, Kalshi and Polymarket start an arms race?

Velodrome Finance

The Federal Reserve will initiate a 90-day consultation period for the Basel III proposal, with Bitcoin facing a 1250% risk weight.

SoSo Macro | Iran's New Leader Vows Revenge, Pledges Hormuz Blockade; Crude Surges

CNN: Senior U.S. government officials did not anticipate Iran would block the Strait of Hormuz.

Wall Street Morning Brief | March 13, 2026

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 99.1%.

Goldman Sachs pushes Fed rate cut projection to September — what next for the crypto market?

Breaking: Trump Calls For Emergency Fed Rate Cut Before Next Week’s FOMC Meeting

The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury rose by 10 basis points, surpassing 3.76%.

How geopolitics and $200 barrels of oil got ‘promoted’ to main driver of Bitcoin price

Today's CME "Fed Watch" data: 99.1% probability that the Fed will hold rates unchanged in March

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