The current trend of BTC2.0 benefits from the recovery of ETF capital inflows, but overall market sentiment remains cautious, with limited risk appetite. Short-term support is located in the 86,100–87,100 range, with resistance concentrated in the 94,000–95,600 range; a breakout from these ranges will trigger extreme volatility and forced liquidations. It is recommended to closely monitor the relationship between price and short-term holding costs, as well as volatility signals from the options market, to dynamically adjust position size and leverage exposure. In the medium to long term, the expectation of asset tokenization and regulatory compliance is replacing cyclical logic as the dominant driver. It is advisable to proactively allocate to high-quality assets with blockchain infrastructure and regulatory advantages, while guarding against short-term shocks caused by sentiment swings within the market.

Recently, BTC2.0 has benefited from the return of net inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, with short-term capital re-entering the market leading to a slight increase in market capitalization. However, overall market sentiment remains in the 'extreme fear' zone, with US equities reflecting institutional caution, and the Coinbase premium turning negative again, signaling insufficient risk appetite for additional positions during US and European trading hours. In the short term, improved capital flows help ease selling pressure, but sentiment recovery will take time, meaning the market may see repeated short-term swings.

Gate Ventures reports a rebound in the cryptocurrency market with BTC and ETH rising 4.13% and 6.61%, respectively, boosting total crypto market cap by 4.82%. ETF inflows improved, reversing two weeks of outflows, with BTC and ETH ETFs gaining approximately $459 million and $161 million. Despite price gains, market sentiment remains in "extreme fear." Mid- and small-cap assets outperformed, led by Memecoins. Ecosystem growth is driven by Ethereum scaling, institutional tokenized finance, and demand for compliant decentralized AI infrastructure. Four funding events raised about $17 million, mainly for data and infrastructure, signaling ongoing long-term development amid cautious short-term sentiment.

Gate Ventures: The cryptocurrency market rebounds, ETF fund inflows signal improvements in market structure.

According to Coinglass data reported by ChainCatcher, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has turned negative again, currently at -0.0277%. This index measures the price difference of Bitcoin on Coinbase compared to the global average, indicating market sentiment and institutional investment activity in the US. A negative premium suggests increased selling pressure, reduced risk appetite, and heightened market caution in the US.

Data: Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index turns negative again, currently at -0.0277%

The average holding cost for short-term holders is above the current price, meaning these holders are currently at an unrealized loss, temporarily suppressing their profit-taking and selling pressure. This structure provides some support for price pullbacks. However, if BTC2.0's price rises to this cost line, there will be a rapid release of profit-taking, creating downward pressure. The key is to monitor the relative movement between price and holding cost; once the bullish break-even point is reached, the risk of short-term pullbacks will rise significantly.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel notes that Bitcoin's current rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This limits their profit-taking potential and suppresses sell pressure, explaining price resilience despite pullbacks. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal is BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

Analyst: The current BTC rise benefits from reduced selling pressure; if it reaches $100K, it will face selling from short-term holders.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel noted that the current BTC price rise benefits from reduced selling pressure by short-term holders, who are currently at a loss since BTC trades below their average acquisition cost. This loss limits their selling potential, easing downward pressure. However, if BTC reaches $100,000, short-term holders may break even and start selling, creating price pressure. A key bullish signal would be BTC closing above the short-term holders' realized price.

The market has seen large-scale symmetrical straddle option positions, reflecting traders’ expectations for high volatility in the coming months. The equal investment in both call and put options means that participants are preparing for either a significant rise or fall in price. This dual-sided betting exacerbates the market's reaction during liquidity crunches, potentially enlarging short-term volatility and necessitating careful position and risk exposure management.

A trader on Deribit has invested approximately $2.36 million in a "straddle" options strategy on Bitcoin, purchasing 660 call options at a $120,000 strike price for about $860,000 and 660 put options at an $80,000 strike price for about $1.5 million. Both sets expire on March 27, 2026, indicating the trader expects significant BTC price volatility by the end of March, with potential upward movement of $28,000 or downward movement of $12,000.

Data: A trader invested $2.36M to buy 660 BTC, 120K call options, and 80K put options.

At present, if BTC2.0 breaks above the 94,000–95,600 range, billions of dollars in short positions could be liquidated; conversely, a drop below the 86,100–87,100 range would trigger large-scale long liquidations. When prices fluctuate between these thresholds, market leverage becomes highly concentrated, and any unilateral breakout could result in a sudden surge of forced liquidations, intensifying short-term volatility.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $94,311, the total short position liquidation on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.798 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $86,127, the total long position liquidation on major CEX will amount to $1.834 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $94,311, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.798 billion.

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $95,649, the total short position liquidations on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $2.532 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $87,099, the total long position liquidations on major CEXs will amount to $1.87 billion.

Data: If BTC breaks $95,649, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $2.532 billion.

In the longer term, the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle may have weakened. Expectations of macro easing, increased institutional participation, and the wave of asset tokenization are becoming new growth drivers. Regulatory compliance processes and the tokenization of physical assets will provide a more solid value foundation for BTC2.0. Investors should pay attention to infrastructure development and regulatory evolution, rather than relying solely on historical cyclical patterns.

Bybit's 2026 Crypto Outlook report suggests the traditional Bitcoin "four-year cycle" may no longer apply directly to the current market. Key points include potential support from expected Fed easing, a 10.3% implied chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end, increased institutional participation, improved regulation, and macroeconomic support disrupting old cycles. Tokenization of real-world assets and expanding stablecoin use are highlighted as major 2026 themes.

"The Four-Year Cycle" Is No Longer a Universal Formula? Bybit Releases 2026 Cryptocurrency Outlook Report

Bitcoin 2.0

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HSBC: Maintains expectation that the Federal Reserve will hold steady for the next two years

HSBC: The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for the next two years.

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