WAG has staged investment value in the current bull market environment, benefiting from industry tailwinds and institutional entry, but its liquidity bottleneck and market-making risks should not be ignored. If the capital environment remains tight, a short-term rebound may occur (recommended range: 0.92~1.08 USDT), but trading volume and bid-ask spread trends must be closely monitored. It is advised that investors adopt a 'flexible position + phased profit-taking' strategy to seize rebound opportunities and avoid trend reversal risks, while continuously tracking platform liquidity subsidies and market-maker behavior, dynamically adjusting portfolio structure.

Recently, several prominent investors have reiterated the investment philosophy of balancing trends and value, arguing for active position building during bull markets and timely profit-taking during bear markets. This view emphasizes the importance of following the market direction, hinting that WAG will continue the sector-wide 'accumulate during uptrend' approach in the short term. As the overall macro environment improves and institutional funds enter, WAG's long-term holding value is further validated. However, caution is advised regarding profit-taking pressure during trend reversal phases.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

From the perspective of market-making, the predicted survival rate of the market is less than 10%, highlighting the liquidity management challenges of the order book model. For WAG, if liquidity providers tighten quotes due to rising inventory risk, this will lead to wider bid-ask spreads and increase short-term volatility. Investors should pay attention to platform liquidity subsidies and market-maker movements, to assess changes in WAG's actual tradable depth and execution costs.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

Some analysts have pointed out that current market liquidity is recovering, possibly bringing staged rebound opportunities for WAG. However, transaction volume and fee data indicate that cyclical downward pressure persists. This means WAG may see a technical rebound in the short term, but in the medium and long term, continued macro and capital tightness could exert selling pressure. Investors can gradually lock in partial profits during the rebound and closely monitor trading volumes to confirm the trend's sustainability.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Waggle Network

Crypto braces for volatility as Warsh hearing nears and rate cut odds slide

Economist: US March CPI monthly rate may surge 1%, Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year.

Economists predict that the US CPI will increase by 1% month-over-month in March, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Slepne: The European Central Bank will discuss either raising interest rates or keeping them unchanged.

Economist: US March CPI monthly rate may surge 1%, the Fed may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year

Trump’s statement boosts odds of Iranian regime falling by June 30 to 14%

US forces’ entry into Iran by April 30 market jumps to 86% amid clashes

Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 86.5% after F-15E recovery

US-Europe alliance strains over Iran conflict as ceasefire odds plummet

US considers seizing strategic islands near Iran, ceasefire odds plummet

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