Constrained by a significant short-term liquidity drought, APM bid-ask spreads are expected to widen and trading activity has fallen to low levels, making short-term prices likely to fluctuate and trend downward (support range: 0.72~0.76). However, in the medium to long term, political theme trading funds are highly concentrated. If APM can effectively align with core narratives and policy events, combined with in-depth community and ecosystem development, it is expected to enhance liquidity and attract more capital attention. It is advised to strictly control positions in the short term and focus on structural market opportunities. In the medium to long term, continue to monitor thematic integration and project ecosystem collaboration progress, and strategically position when appropriate.

Latest market data show that short-term (within 24 hours) trading frequency has dropped sharply, with more than 60% of contracts recording zero transactions, and total trading volume is just one-thirtieth of the traditional sports market. In this liquidity-strained environment, APM bid-ask spreads are likely to widen further, inhibiting short-term speculative demand and possibly leading to significantly reduced trading volume and heightened price volatility. For funds relying on high-frequency trading and short-term bets, their risk tolerance for APM is passively increased, so short-term trading will likely be dominated by fluctuating downward movements.

Compared to short-term contracts, long-term political derivatives show better liquidity, with trading volume highly concentrated on a small number of core themes and nearly half of the transactions contributed by a few hot contracts. This indicates a market preference for key narratives and high-quality targets. As an emerging token, if APM can structure its themes around macro policies or major events, it may attract more attention and liquidity allocation in the medium to long term. Otherwise, it could be marginalized in the wave of market concentration and must accelerate deep development in project ecosystem and community building to stand out amid competition.

Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts before 2027 have significantly cooled.

US Treasuries slumped, lifting yields to the highest levels this month, as mounting oil prices further eroded expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.

Analysis: Waller moves one step closer to becoming the next Fed chair, potentially receiving full Senate confirmation before Powell’s term ends

Trump plans to extend the Iran sanctions for several months, causing U.S. Treasury bonds to fall.

Analysis: Three major risks, such as oil prices lifting to $200, may trigger a global recession.

The focus of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in April.

Bank of Canada holds rates, says changes will be small if forecasts hold true

Major investment banks predict the Federal Reserve's rate cut path, starting as early as September.

Global news you need to know before the US stock market opens on Wednesday.

Fed: Neutral stance into April FOMC – TD Securities

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