Bitcoin is currently oscillating within the $65,000–$73,000 range, with technical signals showing a high-level consolidation pattern. The short-term battle between bulls and bears is focused on the key $71,000 level; a decisive breakout above $73,000 is expected to trigger large-scale short covering and drive the next target towards $80,000, while a break below $67,000 could intensify medium-term selling pressure. On-chain data shows bullish dominance, but profits accumulation increases the risk of short-term corrections, with sentiment shifting to a wait-and-see approach and limited participation. Institutions are consistently buying the dip and show strong long-term holding confidence; it is recommended to allocate positions gradually within the $63,000–$36,000 range to optimize medium- and long-term risk-reward ratios. Amid macro and geopolitical uncertainties, price is likely to stay range-bound in the short term—attention should be paid to key Fed data and potential turning signals, adjusting portfolio strategy accordingly.

Bitcoin continues its broad range oscillation between $65,000 and $73,000. After reaching a $74,900 high in mid-March, it pulled back to around $66,000, then rebounded near $73,000. On the daily chart, recent highs have been descending while lows are rising, forming a consolidation pattern, with bulls and bears fiercely contesting the $71,000 level. On the weekly timeframe, the MACD is about to form a golden cross and price has regained the 200-week moving average. If $73,000 resistance is decisively broken, it may trigger over a billion dollars in short covering, pushing the price to the $80,000 level; conversely, if $67,000 support is lost, it could prompt medium-term profit-taking and concentrated exit by leveraged longs.

Bitcoin is trading at $69,230, nearing the top of its $65,000 to $73,000 range amid hopes of a 45-day ceasefire between the US and Iran. Analysts highlight $71K as a key resistance level; breaking it could trigger a move toward $80K, signaling a potential end to the crypto bear market. Long-term holders control 80% of Bitcoin, nearing historical bear market bottom levels. However, caution remains as previous ceasefire hopes have faded, and the market is currently divided.

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Bitcoin's weekly MACD indicator is nearing a bullish golden cross and its price has risen above the 200-week EMA, signaling a potential trend reversal for the first time since 2025. Despite this technical optimism, geopolitical tensions and inflation uncertainties continue to pressure the market. Bitcoin briefly surpassed $70,000, triggering significant short liquidations and increased speculative activity, while macro factors like US-Iran relations remain key market drivers.

Bitcoin May See Its First Trend Reversal Signal Since 2025: MACD Approaching a Golden Cross, But Macro Uncertainty Still Dominates the Trend

According to ChainCatcher and Coinglass data, if BTC surpasses $71,546, the total short position liquidations on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $1.498 billion. Conversely, if BTC falls below $65,354, the total long position liquidations on major CEXs will amount to $875 million.

Data: If BTC breaks through $71,546, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.498 billion.

On-chain data indicates a bullish-to-bearish profit ratio of almost 3:1, which typically signals increased risk of short-term correction at the end of range-bound movements. Investor sentiment has shifted from panic to a more neutral stance compared to months ago; realized profits and losses have significantly declined, meaning panic has eased but market participation has not fully recovered. Geopolitical factors such as expectations for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz temporarily boosted risk appetite and asset prices, but with doubts around the implementation of the ceasefire agreement, market uncertainty and caution persist.

On April 6, crypto market research firm Santiment posted on social media that on-chain data shows Bitcoin's ratio of profitable to unprofitable transactions at weekend close was 2.95 to 1. Historically, this ratio indicates a short-term price top signal.

Santiment: Bitcoin shows short-term price top signal at weekend close

Amid expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire potentially taking effect Monday and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, risk appetite has risen, boosting Bitcoin and the broader crypto market including Ethereum and Solana. Derivatives show bullish signals with improved Bitcoin futures and declining volatility. Nasdaq 100 futures also rose 0.8%, reinforcing a risk-on mood. However, uncertainty remains as past ceasefire claims were denied by Iran, and any agreement's binding effect on Israel is unclear, limiting sustained risk appetite.

Analysis: Bitcoin's rise drives the overall strength of the crypto market, with Iran ceasefire expectations fueling a risk-on sentiment.

Large listed holding institutions continue to accumulate, with the latest single purchase exceeding 4,800 Bitcoin at an average cost of $67,700. Institutional average holding cost is currently around $75,600, and ongoing buying reflects confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value. Meanwhile, the proportion of long-term holding addresses on-chain approaches 80%, a level usually seen at major bear-market bottoms. Based on multiple bottom indicators, it is recommended to build positions stepwise in the $63,000 to $36,000 range to reduce timing risk and reserve capacity for medium- and long-term holding.

On April 6, Strategy disclosed the purchase of 4,871 BTC for approximately $329.9 million at an average price of $67,718 per BTC. As of April 5, 2026, the company holds a total of 766,970 BTC, with a total investment of about $58.02 billion and an average cost of $75,644 per BTC. Strategy remains one of the largest publicly listed Bitcoin holders globally, with its continued accumulation signaling strong institutional confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value.

The strategy increased its BTC holdings by 4,871 last week, bringing the total holdings to 767K BTC.

Analyst Alicharts updated multiple long-term Bitcoin bottom indicators, identifying key support levels around $63,111, $56,000-$60,000, $47,960, and $43,647. They recommend investors to gradually build positions between $63,000 and $36,000 rather than trying to time a single bottom, noting the market is currently in a wait-and-see or distribution phase, suitable for macro rebound strategies.

Analyst updates multiple long-term bottom indicators for Bitcoin, recommending phased buying starting at $63,000.

This week features a series of key Fed-related data releases—including core PCE, CPI, and FOMC minutes—that will directly affect expectations for interest rate hikes and cuts. Market odds for rate cuts in 2026 have been substantially lowered. If inflation data falls more than expected, Bitcoin may see a short-term rebound; on the other hand, higher-than-expected inflation will again pressure risk assets. With macro variables and geopolitical factors overlapping, Bitcoin's price is likely to remain range-bound in the short term, but once a fundamental turning point emerges, it could open a clear directional move.

Inflation is back in focus with upcoming U.S. data, including core PCE and CPI releases, influencing interest rate expectations and risk assets like bitcoin. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut outlook has shifted, with odds of no cuts in 2026 rising. Bitcoin is seen as pricing in a U.S. recession, though recent resilient economic data has lowered recession odds. Key crypto events, governance votes, token unlocks, and major macroeconomic releases are scheduled this week.

Inflation takes center stage: Crypto Week Ahead

This week features four key U.S. economic releases—FOMC minutes, February PCE inflation, Q4 GDP, and March CPI—that will influence Bitcoin's price trajectory. Bitcoin, down 23% YTD and trading near $69,000, is sensitive to inflation and Fed policy signals. Hawkish data could push Bitcoin lower, while dovish surprises might lift it above $70,000. The outcomes will test if Bitcoin holds above $67,000 or enters a deeper correction amid macroeconomic uncertainties.

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Bitcoin

US Core PCE Price Index Year-over-Year in February at 3%, in line with expectations

US Core PCE annual rate slightly declined, monthly rate remained unchanged.

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The Polish central bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday as policymakers try to assess the impact of the Iran war on inflation following the announcement of a fragile truce in the fighting.

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