Driven by Bitcoin's upward momentum and the restoration of market risk appetite, CBT holds short-term allocation value. We recommend monitoring changes in the CBT/BTC price structure and moderately increasing positions to capture procyclical gains. Meanwhile, active derivatives market activity is boosting volatility, so high-frequency and swing strategies can be deployed opportunistically, but it is crucial to dynamically monitor implied volatility and liquidation risk. For the medium to long term, if the market and regulatory environment continue to improve, CBT has potential for valuation recovery. Investors should build positions in batches and buy on dips during volatile phases to control downside risks associated with single-point entries.

Recently, while the concentration of core Bitcoin holdings has declined, its price has been steadily rising, forming a technical pattern of continuous accumulation by bulls. This price increase accompanied by a decentralized chip structure signals further upward potential ahead. The rebound of mainstream assets typically leads to a restoration in overall market risk appetite, and as a secondary asset, CBT is likely to see short-term allocation opportunities amid this bullish sentiment. Investors can monitor CBT’s relative price fluctuations against BTC, and moderately raise their positions to capitalize on cyclical gains.

On January 4, analyst Murphy noted that BTC's chip concentration within 5% of the January 1 price dropped from 14.9% to 14.5% by January 3, while BTC's price slowly rose. Historical data suggests that a decline in concentration amid rising prices indicates continued price increase. Significant BTC accumulation at $87,000 supports a range of $92,000-$104,000. Technical signals suggest a rebound is more likely than a false breakout unless BTC falls below $87,000.

Analysis: BTC chip concentration decreases, chip structure support is effective, rebound probability is higher than a false breakout followed by further decline.

Increasing activity in Asian markets, coupled with the rise in call options and straddle combinations among hedging tools, suggests that market participants are employing diversified strategies to capture the upward trend. This shift is likely to intensify volatility in the short term, creating arbitrage opportunities for high-frequency and swing traders. CBT can leverage the derivatives market's leverage effect, but it is necessary to monitor real-time changes in implied volatility closely to guard against the risks of rapid corrections and forced liquidations.

Technically, if Bitcoin fails to hold its established support level, it may trigger short-term market sentiment turmoil. At such times, secondary tokens including CBT may follow with sizeable corrections. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, if the overall regulatory and market acceptance continues to improve, CBT, as a representative asset in its niche sector, still has room for valuation recovery. Investors are advised to build positions in batches during market volatility and to supplement quality projects on dips, thereby mitigating the risk associated with one-time market entry.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Community Business Token

Summary of key points from the US April non-farm payroll report: Strong data may complicate Waller's plans to push for interest rate cuts.

Fed's Goolsbee: The Fed should always consider all options

Goolsbee, the most concerning issue is inflation in the service sector.

Goolsbee: Inflation performs poorly, no evidence of deterioration in the job market yet.

What to Expect from Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, Solana Options Expiry and US Nonfarm Payrolls Today?

ECB: War-driven inflation keeps hikes in focus – Nomura

Analysis: Bitcoin surged then fell back below $80K, with ETF outflows and geopolitical risks jointly suppressing market sentiment.

The initial one-year inflation rate expectation for the US in May is 4.5%, lower than expected.

Analysis: The Federal Reserve will not reconsider its statement that it is "not yet ready to tighten interest rates."

Economists: The U.S. industrial sector is experiencing a strong recovery.

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