LOLO has recently benefited from marginal improvements in liquidity, providing a basis for a short-term oversold rebound. If it breaks above the upper boundary of the descending channel (refer to subsequent tracking for price range), bullish sentiment is expected to recover. However, long-term trading volumes and fees remain sluggish, while macro uncertainty and value reassessment expectations coexist, limiting upside potential. Strategically, it is recommended to seize the short-term window, strictly manage position sizes and stop losses, pay attention to large orders and liquidity gaps, avoid blindly chasing rises during periods of high volatility, and combine on-chain and fundamental signals for dynamic assessment of allocation timing in the long run.

In recent days, LOLO's price has fluctuated within a narrow range, with intraday volatility gradually converging and a stalemate emerging between bulls and bears. Analysts expect that, as marginal improvements in market liquidity occur in early January, oversold assets are set to experience a sentiment-driven rebound. Although short-term trading volume and fee levels have not fully recovered, bottoming rebound signals are obvious. If the price breaks above the upper boundary of the recent descending channel, a short-term bullish reversal can be further confirmed.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

From a medium- to long-term perspective, overall market trading fees and volumes remain relatively low, indicating that the larger cycle is still cautious. Some renowned investors emphasize the importance of value drivers and trend identification, and believe the market may gradually enter a bull window driven by macro factors and industry fundamentals, but bearish defensive positions regarding the macro outlook cannot be ignored. Investors need to assess the timing of long-term value reassessment by combining on-chain data and industry trends.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

External research shows that short-term digital asset market liquidity is relatively concentrated and generally low, with a small number of core contracts accounting for the majority of trading volume. Under such circumstances, LOLO is prone to slippage and price manipulation risks. Traders must reasonably control position size and stop-loss strategies, and avoid excessive chasing or panic selling during periods of high-frequency volatility. At the same time, it is advisable to monitor changes in the depth of large orders' books in order to identify potential liquidity gaps in advance.

Elote

Important news from last night and this morning (April 16 - April 17).

Bank of Japan Governor: We need to simultaneously address rising energy prices and economic downturn risks; policy-making is very difficult at this stage.

ECB policymakers play down April rate hike chances

Declining energy prices have moved the euro-zone economy back toward the European Central Bank’s base case and may mean interest-rate increases aren’t needed, according to Governing Council member Primoz Dolenc.

Fed’s John Williams Signals Support for Holding Rates Steady Ahead of FOMC Meeting

Federal Reserve Governor Milian: Currently, it seems that there may only be three rate cuts remaining for the rest of the year.

Milan: Prefers to cut interest rates 3 times this year, but possibly 4 times.

Latin America: Diverging central bank paths – BNP Paribas

Fed's Williams: If inflation reaches target level, rate cuts are still expected

Federal Reserve's Williams: Now is not the time to provide forward guidance on interest rates.

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