Driven by the launch of futures products and tokenization demand, GAS recently experienced a strong short-term rebound, but underlying fundamental pressures have emerged. Domestic natural gas imports have declined and international price divergence persists, resulting in GAS repeatedly finding support at $1.65. If this level fails, the correction could deepen. In the short term, Middle Eastern geopolitical risks may bring volatility, but from a trend perspective, with dual pressures from supply and demand in commodities, GAS faces medium- to long-term correction risks within the year. It is recommended to monitor the effectiveness of the $1.65 support and the breakout direction of the consolidation range, maintain prudent allocation, and guard against structural downward risks.

At the beginning of April, GAS prices surged rapidly from around $1.58 to a high of $1.95, mainly due to the introduction of new natural gas futures on exchanges that attracted a large amount of speculative capital. Meanwhile, demand for commodity tokenization based on blockchain significantly increased, providing liquidity support for GAS. Trading volumes expanded as prices broke through previous highs, and subsequently, prices consolidated in the $1.75–1.80 range, indicating that both buyers and sellers adopted a wait-and-see approach as the market digested these new opportunities.

Altcoin inflows to Binance surged to a three-month high on April 2nd, but this spike was isolated to Binance and not seen on other exchanges. The increase followed Binance's launch of new commodity futures contracts, including natural gas and crude oil, attracting traders to these instruments rather than altcoins. This shift indicates speculative capital moving from altcoins to commodity futures, contributing to weakening altcoin market trends and liquidity.

Altcoin inflows to Binance just hit a 3-month high. The reason is not what you would expect.

Bitfinex reports that tokenized commodities have grown to a $7 billion market cap, rising nearly 600% since early 2025, driven by crypto investors and high-net-worth individuals. Gold remains dominant, with Tether Gold holding 40% market share, offering real-time transfer and auditability advantages. Tokenization now extends to oil, natural gas, and agricultural products, enhancing liquidity, risk management, supply chain transparency, and regulatory compliance. Future focus will shift to industrial commodities, upgrading market infrastructure.

Bitfinex Report: Tokenized Commodities Market Cap Surpasses $7 billion, Stablecoin Infrastructure Upgrades Accelerate Deployment

Data released at the end of March showed that domestic natural gas imports fell to a three-year low, while the US PPI report indicated that natural gas prices dropped by more than 50% month-on-month. These dual negatives led to a downward revision in market demand expectations, causing GAS to pull back and test support near $1.65 after hitting highs. Technically, this level has been repeatedly supported by buying interest, but if it is breached again, a deeper correction may be triggered.

The U.S. March PPI, both overall and core, came in significantly below market expectations, which had focused heavily on rising energy prices. While refined oil products surged, a 51.7% drop in natural gas prices and flat services inflation—accounting for 68% of the index—dampened the impact. Declining trade margins and a 0.3% fall in food prices also contributed. The market overestimated crude oil's effect and underestimated natural gas declines, margin compression, and slowing core services inflation.

Analysis: Market expectations are over-focused on crude oil, and the US March PPI was comprehensively lower than expected.

Middle Eastern developments have disrupted global natural gas transportation and trading chains. Heightened risks in the Strait of Hormuz could push up spot natural gas prices in the short term and translate into higher valuations for GAS tokens. On technical charts, if the price breaks above the current consolidation range, it may reflect amplified market hedging sentiment regarding supply interruptions; conversely, a break lower would signal that fundamental pressures are dominant.

The Iran conflict is disrupting global trade beyond oil, affecting shipping, gas, fertilizer, aviation, petrochemicals, and trade finance, leading to broader economic impacts. China's slowing exports and surging imports, along with weaker US inflation data, signal rising input costs and weaker demand. This creates tighter financial conditions and higher volatility, influencing Bitcoin's role as an inflation hedge amid geopolitical stress. Prolonged disruptions risk shifting from a shock to a structural regime, impacting global liquidity and trade flows.

New weakening China trade and US inflation data means Iran economic contagion is spreading, in unique setup for Bitcoin

Industry strategists point out that after the rapid rises last year and early this year, commodities such as natural gas are facing the dual contradiction of increasing supply and pressured demand, making the risk of downward correction prominent this year. On the daily chart, GAS displays divergence signals such as weak momentum at highs and decreasing trading volume. Unless there are renewed macroeconomic tailwinds, a medium- to long-term correction or structural adjustment could ensue.

Bloomberg senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone warned that after Bitcoin's sharp rally and correction in 2025, commodities like silver, gold, copper, natural gas, and especially crude oil may face similar correction risks by the end of 2026. Rapid price increases, while often supported by fundamentals, tend to boost supply and reduce demand, leading to potential price reversals and market disruptions.

Bloomberg Analyst: After BTC’s sharp rally last year, commodities such as crude oil may face similar correction risks this year.

It’s not a given that the European Central Bank’s next move on interest rates will be a hike, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks.

Kazaks: Will not oppose bets on two interest rate hikes this year

Waller: Rapid resolution of the Middle East situation may allow for interest rate cuts later this year.

Waller: Overall PCE inflation year-over-year in March may reach 3.5%

The Federal Reserve's Waller expressed caution regarding interest rates, warning of the risks of prolonged warfare.

Fed's Daly: Rates May Remain Unchanged

Daly: The federal funds rate is slightly above the neutral level of 3%.

UBS Expects 50 bps Fed Rate Cuts as Gov Miran Downplays Inflation Risks

Federal Reserve's Daly: On hold regarding interest rates.

Easing tensions in the Middle East combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts have pushed gold close to $4,900.

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GAS price today is 1.79, with a live price change of 2.27 in the last 24 hours. Convert, buy, sell and trade GAS on Bybit-eu.

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