LONG benefits from short-term risk appetite driven by large institutions leveraging long positions and a rebound in market liquidity. Currently, it is experiencing a technical rebound window at the support range (2.15~2.30 USDT). However, trading activity has increased only modestly, and short-term false breakouts and pullback risks should be watched closely. The recommended strategy is to follow trend investing principles: build positions in batches and apply stop-loss/take-profit (suggested take-profit at 3.0 USDT, stop-loss at 2.05 USDT), using dynamic position management to cope with volatility. As contract liquidity becomes relatively more favorable, LONG trading becomes more attractive. A focus on capital inflows and sustained market sentiment in the medium-to-short term is advised, while avoiding blindly chasing highs.

A whale with nearly $400 million in holdings has made a large entry on Hyperliquid, going long on Bitcoin with over $190 million and setting high take-profit targets. This massive leveraged long activity reflects institutional money's short-term appetite for risk assets. As funds flow out of mainstream assets, there is potential for spillover effects into secondary markets, which could benefit small- to mid-cap tokens like LONG, markedly increasing short-term risk appetite.

A whale holding 30,060 stETH (worth $97 million) and $370 million in assets on Aave recently deposited 15.5 million USDC into Hyperliquid within 33 hours and went long on 2,070 BTC (valued at $191 million) in the past 12 hours. The whale has set a take-profit price of $93,300 for the entire position.

Data: A certain whale recently deposited 15.5M USDC into Hyperliquid and went long on 2,070 BTC.

Multiple analysts have pointed out that market liquidity is gradually recovering, with trading depth and order book volumes showing signs of improvement. This creates an opportunity for digital assets to stage a bottom rebound. Short-term capital improvements may drive LONG to stage a counterattack near support zones, but trading volume and fee levels indicate that overall market activity is still lacking. Caution is advised against false breakouts that may reverse sharply. In the long run, macro cycles remain uncertain—recent improvement in sentiment may only be a temporary correction.

Analyst Willy Woo tweeted that he expects a short-term rebound in January due to rising liquidity, signaling a bottoming bounce. However, based on trading volume and fees, he remains bearish on the long-term macro cycle, describing the market as bleak.

Willy Woo: There will be a short-term bottoming rebound in January.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost noted on January 4 that the cryptocurrency market is beginning to improve, urging caution against dismissing this trend prematurely. While more data is needed for definitive conclusions, some trend changes are starting to emerge, making this a critical time to pay close attention.

Analysis: The crypto market is beginning to improve, with some trend changes gradually becoming apparent.

Renowned investors emphasize the importance of trend investing, noting that buying on dips during bull markets and selling into strength during bear markets are prevailing strategies, though timing exact tops and bottoms is extremely difficult. For LONG, investors should follow the broader market trend by rationally accumulating positions in steps and exiting in batches, letting gains or losses be determined by the market itself. The current period is marked by intermittent volatility—investors can set stop-loss/take-profit at key price levels to dynamically manage positions amid changing conditions.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua emphasized the importance of trend investing, stating that one should buy in a bull market and sell in a bear market. He noted that it's impossible to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest points. Yi highlighted that their approach is simply to share their understanding and operations without competing with others, and that profits or losses are determined by the market, alongside personal growth and connections made during the process.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing, winning or losing is determined by the market.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua stated that respected investors like Buffett profit from value and trends, not speculation. He affirmed that 2024 is set to be a bull market due to macro and industry factors beyond individual control. Short sellers are making a final effort but face losses—exiting early means small losses, exiting late means large losses. After a month of market volatility, optimism will prevail while pessimists lag behind.

Yi Lihua: Trend is better than speculation, the bull market is set, bears face "small losses early, big losses late."

Prediction markets, relying on order book models, struggle to handle sharp volatility and one-sided market moves; their liquidity is concentrated in only a few top contracts, leading to insufficient overall trading depth. The article suggests the adoption of perpetual contract models to improve efficiency. By comparison, derivatives offer more attractive features: frequent high-frequency trading and optimal funding cost management. Tokens like LONG, with relatively high contract liquidity, may thus be favored among traders, consolidating their market position further.

The article discusses the challenges of market making in prediction markets, highlighting that less than 10% survive until year-end. Unlike AMM-based markets, prediction markets rely on order book models with higher operational complexity, inventory risk, and volatile, jumpy price movements driven by discrete events. Successful market making requires advanced strategies and risk management, often beyond ordinary users' capabilities. Leading platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi invest heavily in liquidity subsidies, creating strong barriers for new entrants and reinforcing dominant players.

Prediction markets are tough: less than 10% may actually survive until the end of the year.

The article critically examines the current state of prediction markets, arguing they have fallen into a "local optimum" trap similar to past tech failures like BlackBerry and Yahoo. While binary options models have gained short-term traction, they suffer from liquidity shortages and low capital efficiency. The author advocates evolving prediction markets toward a perpetual contract model to achieve a truly universal, liquid market, emphasizing the need for radical redesign and humility to overcome structural limitations and realize their full potential.

Falling into a local optimum, market predictions should not stop here.

Long

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