MBX is currently in a consolidation phase within the key range of 0.0387–0.0407, with no clear trend emerging on the technical side. The decline in trading volume indicates a strong atmosphere of market indecision prior to any directional breakout. Short-term volatility risks persist due to the transmission effect of Bitcoin price movements, so investors are advised to manage leverage and position sizes cautiously and guard against risks arising from sudden market events. Strategically, it is recommended to closely monitor the breakout and volume performance at 0.0407; an upward breakout could open up a move towards the 0.042–0.044 range, whereas a break below 0.0387 might trigger a pullback pressure towards 0.0375. Against the backdrop of continued macro caution, range trading and dynamic risk control are advisable while waiting for clear valuation signals during the window period.

Since the end of March, MBX price has rebounded from above 0.037, briefly reaching a high of 0.0443 on April 1 before quickly retreating to around 0.0378, followed by repeated consolidation in the 0.039–0.040 range. Trading volume saw a significant increase at the highs but fell back to moderate levels by mid-April. Recent industry research reports highlight that the macro environment remains cautious, with institutions maintaining a wait-and-see approach due to risk management considerations, leaving short-term downward pressure unresolved. However, from a longer-term perspective, structural market adjustments are providing a clearer valuation window, helping participants find positioning opportunities during the adjustment phase.

This article systematically analyzes the current crypto market downturn from the perspectives of the macro environment, institutional behavior, market structure, and industry trends. Combining Huobi HTX research insights, it offers forward-looking views on potential future turning points and long-term trends, aiming to provide market participants with a more structured framework for judgment.

Slump or Opportunity? The Crypto Market Enters a "Repricing Moment": The Macro Logic Behind the Slump, Structural Transformation, and Future Turning Points

In the Bitcoin market, short sellers’ costs have risen to their highest levels in nearly two years, while funds continue to flow into accumulation periods, indicating strong hedging and positioning coexistence. This "dual-peak long-short" situation may trigger amplified effects with periodic rebounds or declines in price, leading to swift short-term volatility. As a highly liquid alternative asset in the secondary market, MBX often follows broader market movements with volume breakouts or deep pullbacks during such volatility. Prior to a confirmed direction, investors need to control position sizes and be cautious of leverage and liquidation risks.

On the daily chart, MBX has found support multiple times at the 0.0387 level, while the 0.0405–0.0407 zone forms a clear resistance band above. Trading volume has retreated from the peak at the start of April to recent average levels, with no sign of expansion, suggesting the trend has yet to be established. In the short term, a successful breakout above 0.0407 with increased volume could lead MBX back to the 0.042–0.044 range; conversely, a loss of support at 0.0387 could point to downside risks towards 0.038–0.0375. Overall, the technical side is in a range-bound consolidation phase, and a breakout will likely require external factors or broader market guidance.

MAGABABY

Powell: Maintaining the interest rate unchanged is the right decision.

Powell: Commitment to reducing inflation to 2% remains unwavering

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Powell: No reason to believe policy will tighten significantly

Powell: Unable to Clearly Determine the Neutral Interest Rate

Powell will signal and take action if a rate hike is needed.

Analyst: Unexpected divisions within the Federal Reserve; worsening challenges expected after Wash's appointment

Analyst: Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve highlight the challenges facing Waller.

Powell: The prospect of rising core inflation is real.

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